Wednesday Report…The Great Deflation Round 2 .

In tonight’s report I would like to show you some charts that could be telling us that the second shoe maybe getting close to dropping in the on going deflation scenario that really started to take hold last year at this time. If you recall the US dollar broke out of a massive base and with most commodities following  lower. Commodities have been consolidating for most of 2015 chopping out some decent sideways trading ranges. In order to really get this second leg going to the downside, for commodities, the US dollar is the key component that needs to breakout topside.

The first chart tonight will be of the US dollar which topped out in March of this year creating a double top reversal pattern. After nearly reaching the price objective in May the dollar had a good bounce only to come back down to the previous low around the 93 area in the middle of June which I could make a case for a double bottom. The low on the right side of the potential double botttom has been carving out an inverse H&S bottom with today’s price action touching the possible neckline. Needless to say this is a critically important point right here and now for the US dollar.

us dollar day one

Below is another longer term daily chart for the US dollar that shows the big impulse move up that started in July of last year that we followed right from the beginning. Note the smaller red consolidation patterns that made up that strong impulse move up.  Also note how much bigger the blue expanding falling wedge is compared to any of the smaller red consolidation patterns. This tells us that the potential blue expanding falling wedge will most likely be a halfway pattern that will separate the first  impulse move up from the second impulse move up that maybe is just now getting started. This is the pattern I’ve been showing you on the UUP chart. We’ll know in the next day or two if the breakout and backtest to the top blue rail of the expanding falling wedge is valid. So far so good.

us dllar 2

This next chart is a very long term monthly look that shows the two fractal bases that are uncanny in their appearance to each other. You can see the massive rally that the US dollar had once all the pressure was released from the big base #2 last year.

us dollar fractal

This next monthly chart for the US dollar zeros in on the big base #2 using candlesticks. When you see a string of white candlesticks all in a row, especially on a monthly chart, you know you’re in an impulse move up and when you see a string of black candlesticks all in a row you know you’re in an impulse move down. If the US dollar can close out the month of July in a strong move we’ll see our first white candle which is needed to start an impulse move higher.

us dolar monthly candle

Lets look at one last long term chart for the US dollar that shows the massive bullish falling wedge pattern. If you recall I said to look for support on the backtest to the top blue rail as shown by the little brown box. Worst case scenario would be a test of the neckline extension rail just slightly lower at 92 or so. The top blue rail has done it job so far holding support.

us dollar boun falling wedge

Below is a combo chart that has the US dollar on top and gold on the bottom. The US dollar had about a 38% correction off of its most recent high while gold has just kept plugging along forming the two year falling wedge consolidation pattern. One thing that should stand out for you is how gold has made a series of lower lows and lower highs since it’s bear market began almost four year ago. Note just the opposite price action on the left side of the chart during the bull market years where gold made a series of higher highs and higher lows.

us gollar combo

Next lets look at a few important currencies that may help in giving us some clues about a possible US dollar bottom and move higher. The XAD, Australian dollar, which is a commodities base currency has broken down from a H&S consolidation pattern accompanied with a breakout gap.

xad astrualian

The weekly chart for the XAD shows the H&S as a consolidation pattern within the major impulse move down out of the massive H&S topping pattern. The H&S consolidation pattern has been just a pause to refresh before moving lower which it’s now doing.

xad weekly

The XEU is the biggest component for the US dollar so it should give us some clues to help us understand what is going on with the US dollar. The daily chart below shows a six point Diamond consolidation pattern that has been forming since the low in March of this year. After a strong backtest that left behind an island reversal pattern it looks like the breakout is starting to gain some traction.

exu euro

The XJY is another important currency which shows it broke down from a rectangle consolidation pattern several weeks ago with a strong backtest that also left behind an island reversal pattern.

xjy

The long term weekly chart for the XJY shows its bear market decline and the little red rectangle consolidation pattern that has formed as just, Another Brick in the Wall.

xjy wekly

Lets look at one last currency which will be the XSF. As you can see it has built out a strongly slanted H&S consolidation pattern which broke below the neckline with a breakout gap about two weeks ago. The backtest was completed last Friday with today’s move making a new low for this move down from the right shoulder high.

xsf day

By looking at the different currencies we can see that they have been consolidating since the March low of this year and have broken out from those consolidation patterns within the last two weeks or so with a backtest in most cases. Keep in mind these consolidation patterns formed after a very strong decline which is what you want to see in a strong impulse moves down that can be made up of several small consolidation patterns. After you see the third small consolidation pattern form in an strong impulse move you know you’re getting close to the end.

During the last impulse move down the commodities also matched the currencies in weakness almost tic for tic. Lets look at a few different commodities and see if they’re showing a similar setup to some of the currencies we just looked at above.

Below is a daily chart for the CRB index which is showing us a five point triangle reversal pattern after a very small rally off of the initial February low. The breakout was accompanied by a big breakout gap but the backtest failed to reach the bottom rail of the black triangle reversal pattern. It’s a reversal pattern pattern because it formed within the uptrend. Had the CRB broken out above the top black rail it would have been a four point consolidation pattern. Reversal patterns have an odd number of reversal point and consolidation patterns have an even number of reversal points.

crb 1

This long term daily chart for the CRB index shows its first impulse leg down when it broke out of the huge triangle reversal pattern. It has been consolidating in the blue expanding triangle which shows a lot of volatility.

CRB DAY 2

The GNX is another commodities index that is showing some very nice Chartology. The two blue patterns are making a much bigger black bear flag that had a nice clean breakout and backtest.

gnx 1

The very long term daily chart shows the first impulse leg down that had a blue bearish falling wedge that showed up about the halfway point. Now the GNX has been building out a much larger blue bear flag that is more normal looking to most chartists as it slopes up against the trend unlike the bearish falling wedge that slopes down in the same direction of the trend.

gnx long term

The GYX is an industrial metals index that broke down from a H&S consolidation pattern back in the middle of June.

gyx industat

The GSC is another commodities index that has been building out an expanding rising wedge pattern since the first of the year.

GSC DAY

Lets finish up by looking at the most important commodity on the planet, oil. When oil initial found support at the 42 area this past spring it looked like it was setting up for a very strong rebound. It formed a nice double bottom which then morphed into what looked line a very symmetrical H&S bottom as shown by the brown rectangles. The breakout failed to gain any momentum to the upside and began to trade sideways which still wasn’t the end of the world yet. The end of the world came when the sideways trading range turned out to be a five point rectangle reversal pattern which broke to the downside with a huge  breakout gap. For the last two weeks or so it has been trading in a very tight trading range as shown by the red rectangle.

OIL DA1

The monthly chart shows the string of black candlesticks that accompanied the first impulse leg down. If we can get a black candlestick for the month of July it will be the second one in a row which would mark a good start for the next possible impulse move down.

oil candle

This last chart for tonight shows you the double bottom that formed back in 2008 – 2009 which led to a big rally. Note how the backtest held back then, red circle. If we compare our recent double bottom to the 2008 double bottom they look similar at first glance. There is a big difference tho and that is the current double bottom gapped back below the double bottom hump with a big gap. It still maybe a little early to say yet but our current double bottom looks more like a failed double bottom at this time.

oil double bottom

The bottom line is that I’m seeing some of the same setups that marked the beginning of the last major impulse move down that started last year about this time. Most of all the currencies are breaking down from five month consolidation patterns while the commodities are breaking down from slightly bigger consolidation patterns along with the precious metals stocks. If this is true we’re on the cusp of an other deflationary move down of similar magnitude of the one from last year. Stay tuned as things are really starting to get interesting. All the best…Rambus

 

 

 

Weekend Report…Gold’s Peculiar 6 Month Cycles .

In this Weekend Report I’m going to show you some more of the same precious metals stocks we’ve been following as more are joining the impulse move to the downside adding confirmation. Unlike the US stocks markets that have been trading sideways since the December high of last year, the precious metals stocks are in a confirmed impulse move down and that’s where the real money is made.

Before we get into the individual precious metal stocks I know a lot of folks follow the six month time cycles for gold which has a good track record for finding a good low to buy. There is defiantly a six month cycle bottom but sometimes it inverts meaning it will be a top instead of a bottom. As it stands right now we are at the point where the six month time cycle is due. On the three year chart below is the six month time cycles that I have followed for many years which shows this time of the year is often a good place to take a position. Also on this six month time cycles chart you will see two inverted six month time cycles that show, instead of making a low, gold was making a high, red arrows. When that six month cycle bottom inverts gold generally will decline for close to six months, red circles. Our current situation is shown by the last red arrow on the right hand side of the chart with the question mark.

GOLD 6 MONTH

The next chart for gold shows the six month time cycles going back to the 2008 crash low. From the crash low in 2008 to the bull market top in 2011 you could bet the farm that the six month time cycle bottom was going to come into play. Along with the Chartology at the time, red consolidation pattern, that near parabolic rally was a whole lot easier to play than our four year bear market that is punctuated by just two consolidation patterns so far, the blue two year rectangle at the top of the chart and our current two year falling wedge pattern that still hasn’t broken down yet. This six month time cycle is slightly different than the one above by a few weeks or so.

GOLD 6 MONTH BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS

Shortly after I became aware of the bull market in the precious metals stocks in the spring of 2002 everyone was taking about the six month time cycle for gold. As I was curious I built out my own chart for the HUI which also shows the six month time cycles. It quickly became apparent to me that there was something to the six month time cycles for the PM complex. When I began working on the six month cycle bottoms for the HUI I had an epiphany moment similar to the one I had on the US dollar when I first discovered the two huge fractal bottoms that long term members will remember. Keep in mind we are taking about the middle of 2003 when I discovered what I call, THE SEQUENTIAL 6 MONTH TIME CYCLES, for the lack of a better name.

When I looked at the bull market that begun in 2000 for the HUI the six month time cycle stuck out like a sore thumb. The chart below is a static chart that goes from 2000 to the 2008 H&S top. The thin black vertical lines are the six month time cycles and the heavy thick vertical lines are the sequential six month time cycles tops. What I discovered back then was each six month cycle top was growing further apart by six months. Note the first impulse move up in the HUI’s brand new bull market, marked with the red A. That rally lasted six months before the first consolidation pattern was built. Now notice there are two six month time cycles between the tops at A and B with one thin black vertical line showing a six month cycle low within the red triangle. Next you have the rally to the sequential six month cycle top at C which is made up of three six month time cycles before the next consolidation pattern started to build out.

Now we’re entering into the fourth sequential six month time cycle. Note the reversal points within the red triangle that shows each reversal point came during the smaller six month time cycle. This sequential six month time cycle was actually off by six months as shown by D? which should have been the next top. I clearly remember thinking at the time, what did this mean, as the HUI wasn’t following the script as it had before. I still knew the smaller six month time cycles were dominate and the Chartology suggested that the HUI was breaking out of a two year triangle consolidation pattern so I held on.  The blue arrows shows that impulse move that lasted one year and ended at the first reversal point in the red triangle within the 5th sequential six month cycle.The fifth sequential six month top ended during the formation of the 2008 H&S top. It didn’t nail the top to a tee but again with Chartology on my side I could see the H&S top forming and mentioned it at a website I was posting on at the time. I’m not going to mention anyone’s name Sir Fullgoldcrown, but at that time nobody and I mean nobody was looking for a serious correction back then. I believe I took more flack for calling that H&S top than any other top I’ve ever called.

Editor’s Note:

http://rambus1.com/?p=12205

 

One last note on the chart below. Notice where the 2008 crash low stopped, right on a six month time cycle that launched the sixth sequential cycle top which I will show you after this chart.

hui first six

This next chart starts where the last chart above left off. The sixth sequential cycle top was now three years long with the sequential six month cycle top due in May of 2011 point F on the chart below. Again notice the smaller thin vertical lines which mark the smaller six month time cycles within the massive H&S top.

That brings us up to the seventh sequential six month time cycle top. This was the first major failure for the sequential cycle tops at G which also marks the smaller six month time cycle low that came last year in November. The smaller six month time cycle marked the beginning of our latest consolidation phase that I believed ended at the April high of this year. Earlier in the bull market the six month time cycles were usually in May and November but for the last several years October and April have marked the six month cycles.

One last very important note on the chart below. Notice where the next six month time cycle comes into play. Does October of 2015 ring a bell? If we see the HUI falling in to the October time frame I think there will be initially a strong bounce that may mark the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bottoming formation that will take some time to develop. How long is anyone’s guess but the initial bounce off a bottom is usually very strong. Think of a super ball. The first bounce will be the highest and strongest.

hui 6 month time #2

This last chart for the HUI shows the complete sequential six month time cycles going all the way back to the beginning of the bull market in 2000 to the present. I’ve always said the precious complex creates some of the best chart patterns and symmetry of all different descriptions that you just don’t find everywhere. That is one reason I’ve never believed in the manipulation theories. If the precious metals complex was being manipulated then I believe you would have very ugly Chartology along with cycles and symmetry. Nature strives for symmetry and we are just a part of nature creating these chart patterns.

HUI LONG TERM SEQUENTIAL

Now I would like to update you on some of the PM stocks I’ve been showing you over the last month or so that are showing us what is actually happening under the surface. I have place some price objectives at the bottom of the charts so we can get a feel for when this next low, that I’m expecting in October, to occur.

Lets start with ABX which is now testing the bottom rail its blue rectangle consolidation pattern.

abx

Anyone who has bought ABX over the last 20 years is underwater.

abx month

Is AEM building out a double top at reversal point #7?

aem b

AGQ is a silver etf that is in the process of backtesting its neckline.

AGQ

ASA is following through to the downside after breaking out from its red triangle consolidation pattern just two weeks ago.

ASA

The monthly chart for ASA shows just how critical this area is right here. Note all the previous lows going all the way back to 2003.

asa montly

ASM is still working its way lower after breaking out from a H&S top.

asm

AU is moving lower after backtesting the bottom rail of its blue triangle consolidation pattern.

AU

AUY is breaking below its 2008 crash low after breaking out from the red bearish falling wedge.

auy

These are only the PM Stocks starting with and “A” But one can get the idea .The rest of the Multitude of PM Miner’s Charts that I follow will be posted in a separate post for Subscribers :

The reason I’m spending so much time and energy showing you all these precious metals stocks is to give you confidence that the impulse move is for real. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see all these consolidation patterns breaking down from the November low from last year. We are in an impulse move down in the precious metals stocks that has a very good chance to run until October / November of this year. That’s still another three to four months away and will be right at a year which is normal for the pm stocks. Go back and look at the HUI time cycles charts I posted earlier. You will see several of the big impulse moves up and out of the red consolidation patterns that took to close a year to complete. These types moves don’t come around everyday.

When you’re looking at your minute charts and start to get nervous on a small pattern that might be forming see how it relates to the big picture that I just showed you on all these stocks above. The big picture trumps the minute charts in the long run. This impulse move still has much further to run before it runs out of gas per all the consolidation patterns that are just now breaking out to the downside. October / November is a reasonable time for this impulse move to finish. I hope we all end up at the finish line together… All the best…Rambus

All the best

Rambus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Friday Night Charts…US Stock Markets and the AWCI

Tonight I would like to update you on some of the US stock markets we looked at this morning. For the most part the support and resistance lines held pretty well today considering all the volatility. Starting with the INDU the S&R line held resistance today but the 200 dma is still holding support so we have a standoff taking place. So far all the volatility has been held in check below the support and resistance line which is telling us it’s an important trendline. The best way to look at the S&R line is to think of it as support when the price action is trading above it and resistance when the price action is trading below it. It’s a well defined line in the sand.

DOW DAY 1

The longer term daily chat for the INDU is showing the price action dropping below the S&R line which should now reverse its role from what had been support to now resistance. For the last three years or so the INDU has completed one consolidating pattern on top the the next , creating an uptrend , which is a bull market.

indu uprtrend channel

After breaking below the S&R line two weeks ago it is still holding resistance. It won’t take long before we know what next direction this index wants to go.

SPX DAY

The ACWI is an all word stock market that broken down from a possible double H&S top and is now in the process of backtesting the upper H&S #1 neckline from below which could very well be the right shoulder of a double H&S top.

acwi

The compq has been trading in an 8 month rising channel formation touching the bottom rail this past week.

copq day

The long term daily chart for the NDX100 shows it breaking down from the blue 5 point triangle reversal pattern this week.

ndx 100

The NYA has broken down from a 5 month H&S top that has broken the neckline and is now it backtesting process.

nya day

The RUT has been building out a 7 month rising channel formation with a breakout and backtest taking place right now.

rut day

I am watching the ACWI For clues the Stock Markets are making an important top .

It seems like next week is going to be an important time to see how all these backtests that have going on now for several weeks play out. Have a great weekend…Rambus

acwi

Stock Market Updates…

This week has been very volatile in the US stock markets as you well know. The volatility started two weeks ago when the Dow dropped 350 points on a Monday I believe. That decline broke an important support and resistance line that had held support since March. This volatility has taken place just below that important support and resistance line which so far is holding as the backtest. The indicators are still bearish for the most part.

indu day

Below is another daily chart for the Dow which is showing the 200 dma. I also added a short term price objective if this important support and resistance line holds as the backtest. From top to bottom it would give the Dow about a 7% correction at a minimum. The December and February lows would actually be the next area of support around the 17,050 area.

indu 200

The long term daily chart for the Dow shows how the breakout and backtest looks along with the 200 dma.

DOW LONG TERM

The daily chart for the SPX shows the big breakout day from two weeks ago and the backtest that has been taking place.

spx day

The daily chart for the COMPQ shows a similar setup to the Dow and SPX and is strongly backtesting its support and resistance line today as well.

compq day

Wednesday Report…Precious Metals : The Game Plan

Tonight I would like to update you on some precious metals charts we’ve been following very closely to shed some light on where we’re at and where we maybe heading. When investing in the markets we need to have a game plan to follow so that we know when the game changes we have to change. As long as the game plan is working you stick with it until you’ve reached your price objectives or the trend changes.

Believe me it’s not at all easy to follow a game plan. There are things that happen to a stock or market on a daily basis, that we have no control over, that can affect our thinking. Without a game plan to follow we are at the mercy of every little wiggle a stock makes. One has to have a certain amount of confidence in whatever trading system they use to be able to ride out the wiggles that can whipsaw you to death if you act on every move a stock makes.

Getting the initial position to stick is one of the hardest things to do because it’s impossible to buy the absolute bottom. A stock or market will move two steps forward and one step back in an uptrend. It’s that one step back that tends to get you if you didn’t buy the actual low. So usually, at the beginning of a trade, many times you’ll find yourself with a small loss to deal with. If you got the trend right it will generally fix itself and your small loss will finally turn into the gain you’re originally looking for.

Lets now look at some precious metals stocks to see if our original game plan is still working. Below is a chart for the $BPGDM that shows the GDX on top and the BPGDM on the bottom. The last time I showed you this combo chart the GDX still hadn’t broken the neckline yet and the BPGDM chart on the bottom was stuck at 23.33 I believe. As you can see the GDX has broken below its neckline and the BPGDM has moved lower and is now trading at 16.67 which means that only 16.67% of gold mining stocks, on a point and figure chart, are on a buy signal. Note the alinement that now shows the BPGDM is leading the way lower with the faster 5 dma next and the 8 dma last. This is the setup you want to see in a downtrend.

BPGDM

The next chart is a long term daily look at the CDNX index which was just starting to break below the bottom rail of the blue triangle consolidation pattern the last time we looked at it. As you can see it’s now starting to pick up some steam to the downside confirming the small caps are in trouble.

CDNX DAY

This next chart is a daily look at the GDM which shows the combo triangle / H&S consolidation pattern that started to form at the November low from last year. It’s easy to see in hindsight now how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together. Note the breakout from the triangle, black solid trendline, eight days ago was quickly followed by the breakout below the neckline three days later. This past Monday was the backtest day that tested the neckline. This chart shows you the game play we’ve been following since May which is still working according to the Chartology. If for some unexpected reason the price action starts trading above the neckline and the bottom rail of the black rectangle then the game plan will have changed and I will have to adapt to what the chart is saying at that time. So far so good.

GDM DAY

The indicator chart shows all the inductors are bearish at this time.

gdm indicator

Some of you may remember this daily chart for GDM which is showing the blue morphing rising wedge that caused a little trouble back when it was forming. The red marks shows how it morphed into a slightly larger bearish rising wedge with a false breakout of the top dashed trendline and then an equal false breakout of the bottom dashed trendline that represents the original bearish rising wedge. The solid blue trendlines ended being the pattern I was looking for. Note the breakout through the bottom rail of the blue bearish rising wedge and the backtest that lasted about a week before the price action began to decline in earnest. That little move helped confirm the game plan for me at the time. It looks just like another little wiggle to most folks but for me it was a serious piece of the puzzle.

gdm rising wedge

Below is a long term daily line chart that shows gold on top and silver on the bottom. The black dashed trendline down at the bottom right hand side of the chart finally shows silver cracking that important trendline / NL while gold is still testing its own black dashed trendline. It has taken awhile but this chart is still confirming the game plan. There is still a lot of room for the RSI indicator at the top of the chart to move lower.

GOLD SILVE COMBO

Below is a daily chart for gold that shows its most important moving averages which are all above the most recent price action confirming the game plan. If we were to see gold start trading above some of these important moving averages then I would have to start to reconsider the game plan but for now there is nothing broken.

gold ma

This next chart for gold shows the downtrend channel I’ve been trying to show you once a week so that you can follow the Chartology as it’s developing in real time. The black and red rectangles measures time and price for each impulse move. I’ve been saying that I would like to see the price action testing the bottom rail of the blue bearish falling wedge by the middle of July. The reason for that is because that is when gold broke below the bottom rail of it big six point blue rectangle back in 2013 and the red rectangle measured that impulse move down. The red rectangle at the bottom right hand side of the chart is the exact same size that shows where we may look for a low in time and price. It’s not mandatory that gold hits the bottom rail of the blue falling wedge in the middle of July but time wise it would be some nice symmetry if it did.

gold weekly

I’ve been showing you this long term monthly chart for gold shortly after it broke down from the bearish expanding rising wedge almost two years ago. Longer term members may remember when I added the neckline extension rail that is taken from the 2008 H&S consolidation pattern and extended it out in time to the right hand side of the chart. The symmetry was just too pretty to ignore as shown by the neckline symmetry rails. They’re all the exact same angle which shows the bottoms of the left and right shoulders of the 2008 H&S consolidation pattern, which is also the same angle for the neckline, which also shows the highs for the left and right shoulders of the massive H&S top and its neckline. The breaking and backtesting process has been going on for close to a year now but this is a massive H&S top that is in play as big patterns take a lot time to develop. Now it’s getting time for gold to break to new lows since its bear market began in September of 2011. That will confirm the game plan.

gold bearish expanding rising wege

I don’t show Platinum very often but it’s part of the game plan. Below is a long term monthly chart that shows its multi year blue rectangle. It then formed the smaller red rectangle and is now making new yearly lows.

platinum

Platinum weekly chart.

platimum weekly 44444

This next chart is a daily line chart for silver that shows it breaking below its neckline. If you look really close you can see a tiny little backtest to the neckline. It’s possible we see another backtest to the neckline but the fact that it has broken below the neckline tells us we’re on the right track.

SILVER DAY LINE

As with gold silver to has a massive H&S top in place. It too has some very nice symmetry as show by the neckline symmetry rail which shows the height for the left and right shoulders. My game plan is to shoot for the brown shaded support and resistance zone. If silver makes it that low I’ll be satisfied.

silve massive H&S top

I have many more charts I could show you but I would like to end this Wednesday report by looking at the GDXJ. Below is the two hour chart we’ve been following that shows the blue bearish rising wedge with a H&S top.

gdxj 2 hour

Below is a long term daily chart which shows the previous consolidation pattern, the bearish rising wedge at the top of the chart. The H&S top I showed you on the two hour chart above is the fourth reversal point in the new bearish falling wedge at reversal point #4. Note the impulse move down from the blue bearish rising wedge at the top of the chart that also had a H&S top at its fourth reversal point. Our current blue bearish falling wedge would give us a price objective down toward the 12 area as shown by the blue arrows.

GDXJ LONG DAY 222

This long term monthly chart shows how our current blue bearish falling wedge fits into the bigger picture.

gdjx monthly

When you look at all the individual precious metals stocks I’ve been posting that are breaking out from their seven month consolidation patterns along with these charts above the game plan is still clearly in affect. It’s possible it could change at anytime but until that time comes I have to go with the game plan that has been working. All the best…Rambus

 

INDU Update…

Aside

We are getting a test of the low from the big decline last Monday which is to be expected as many times it takes multiple tests before support really sticks. This is now the moment of truth as this low needs to hold support or a bigger decline can be expected. There is the 200 dma, the time cycle low and the very high volume spike from last Monday, in the down to up volume chart, that are showing this could be an important low.

indu  day

The down to up volume chart shows the low from last Monday had a very large capitulation spike that was the highest since 2012 or so.

indu to up vlu

The GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending

The GDXJ is at an important inflection point right here and now. As you can see it’s sitting right on the neckline of a small H&S top that has formed at the fourth reversal point on the potential bearish falling wedge. A break of the neckline will almost assure a move down to the bottom blue rail of the falling wedge at a minimum.

GDXJ DAY 1

The long term weekly chart shows the two blue consolidation patterns with the lower one being the possible bearish falling wedge we looked at on the chart above. Note the 4th reversal point in the top pattern, the bearish rising wedge, and the decline that followed. The fourth reversal point in the lower bearish falling wedge may very well be the beginning of the next impulse move down similar to the fourth reversal point in the bearish rising wedge. If that is true this move down is just getting started. The blue arrows measures the price objective down to the 12.69 area which would cut the GDXJ in half from the current level.

GDXJ WEEKLY

The daily chart for the GDX shows it has now broken below the bottom rail of the black triangle using the bar chart. Notice it formed a small H&S top at its fourth reversal point similar to what the GDXJ is doing right now. When you compare this daily chart for the GDX to the GDXJ chart above the GDX big caps are leading the way lower. Maybe the small caps will play catch up as they are lower on a percentage basis today.

gdx day

SLV Update…Step by Step …Inch by Inch

Since the all important low that the precious metals complex made last November SLV has built out a H&S consolidation pattern. It’s not the prettiest one I’ve ever seen but all the pieces are there. SLV looks like it’s completing the second right shoulder by breaking down from a small H&S top today. As you can see there are two left shoulders and two right shoulders with a big fat neckline, brown shaded area, as the lows were not even. Nevertheless that brown shaded S&R zone shows all the lows that were made since the November low and if SLV breaks below the brown shaded S&R zone/neckline it will reverse its role to what had been support  for 7 months to resistance.

SLV

Below is the long term monthly chart we’ve been following for several years now. This daily H&S consolidation pattern has formed as the backtest to the bottom rail of the blue triangle and the neckline of a much bigger H&S top. It has taken almost a year now since SLV broke below the bottom rail of the blue triangle to compete the backtesting process. Big patterns take lots of time to completed all the work during the breaking out and backtesting sequence. Step by step the job is getting completed.

slw weekly