The stock markets are still in a dangerous area to try and get positioned for a move lower as many of the different stock markets have broken out from a bearish rising wedge formation since the August 24th low. This short term daily chart for the SPX shows a nice example of the rising wedge. Yesterday it broke below the bottom rail of its bearish rising wedge with today’s price action going nowhere. The top of the bearish rising wedge at reversal point #4 is the possible right shoulder high of a much bigger H&S top. A complete backtest would come in around the 1970 area.

The long term daily chart for the SPX is showing us a possible H&S top in play. The left shoulder was a bullish expanding falling wedge while the possible right shoulder is a bearish rising wedge. Breaking through the first brown shaded support and resistance zone at 2020 was a big clue that a potential H&S top maybe playing out. The reason being is that the top of the left shoulder should have held support under normal circumstances. As you can see the price action sliced right through the left shoulder high like a hot knife through butter. That was the very first thing we needed to see if a H&S pattern was going to form. Next we got the initial bounce that took the SPX backup to the lows that formed on the left side of the chart at the 1985 area. After bouncing off of the bottom rail of the blue rising wedge the SPX made another run higher but this time it found resistance at the 2020 area. This is a similar setup I was looking for on the oil chart where the tops of the left and right shoulders form at the exact same height even tho the neckline is slanted. Note how the brown shaded S&R zones held initial resistance at 1985 after the big selloff. The lower S&R zone was hit and the SPX fell lower followed by a second hit which this time broke through to find resistance at the next brown shaded S&R zone at 2020. The only S&R zone that hasn’t been tested is the one at 2045 which I’m viewing as the head portion of the big H&S top. Again getting positioned in this type of volatility can be very hard. You can be right but still wrong if the move is delayed or there is a whipsaw. If we get a backtest to the underside of the rising wedge at the 1970 area I will take a short position.

The long term daily chart below shows the massive bearish expanding falling wedge we’ve been following for well over a year now. You can see the big breakout gap that occurred in July and then the strong backtest to the bottom black trendline. I have pointed out many times when you see a smaller consolidation pattern form just above, just below, one above and one below or one right on an important trendline, which the bottom rail of the two year consolidation pattern is, is generally a bearish situation. A touch of the bottom rail of the possible red bearish falling wedge will complete the pattern. This would be a perfect setup as it would gives us a nice way to measure for a price objective. Using both measuring techniques I get a two price objectives one at 67.15 and the second just a little lower at 64.35. I don’t believe at this time that those two price objectives will mark the end of the bear market but it is a possibility that I’ll be watching very closely.

Just before the site went down we were looking to take a last position in DGAZ which is a 3 X short natural gas etf when the bottom rail of the red expanding triangle was broken to the downside. The 2 hour chart shows the price action gapping below the bottom rail of the red expanding triangle on Monday of this week. If we get a backtest to the bottom red rail it should come in around the 12.30 area.

The daily chart for UNG shows the bigger Diamond consolidation pattern with the little red expanding triangle forming just below the bottom rail which is usually a bearish setup. Think of the blue Diamond as a halfway pattern to the downside. Note how the price action declined into the Diamond. We should see something similar when all the backtesting is finished and the next impulse move down begins in earnest which looks very close to beginning.

The 2 hour chart for DGAZ which is the 3 X short etf we’re trading shows its own expanding triangle with a breakout to the upside.

Below is the daily chart for DGAZ which shows the sideways trading range this etf has been in since the beginning of the year. I’m going to take my last position in DGAZ and buy another 2500 shares at the market at 7.00 using the sell/stop on the UNG if it hits 13.33 for now. KOLD is a 2 X short natural gas etf.

The monthly chart for DGAZ shows you why I’ve been accumulating short positions in natural gas. There is a potential very large inverse H&S bottom forming with the price action approaching the neckline. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart so things move very slowly from this perspective. With the deflationary theme in place this etf may offer some good returns.

I exited this trade when the sell/stop was hit at 31.25 on 9-21-15.

I’m going to exit the UWTI position as it’s not developing as it should since the breakout of the small triangle. I’m going sell 1000 shares at the market at 10.63 to close the position. The only position I have open now is the 3 X short natural gas etf DGAZ.

First I would just like to thank everyone for their patience during this unfortunate situation we find ourselves in. Just know everything humanly possible is being done behind the scenes to get Rambus Chartology back up and running better than ever. Rambus

There is a potential pattern taking shape on the daily chart for the GDM that was virtually undetectable until yesterday. After slightly closing above the 50 dma the GDM has been declining back down to the bottom of the recent trading range that began at the August low. I have always viewed this little trading range, at the bottom of the chart, as a halfway point in the decline that began when the H&S / triangle broke down back in June of this year. Last Friday’s high may very well be the start of the 4th reversal point to the downside which won’t be complete until the bottom rail of the potential bearish falling wedge is hit. This is a perfect area for a small consolidation pattern to form. As you know there can be 2 or more individual chart patterns that form a bigger pattern. Originally I was looking at the possible H&S consolidation pattern as the halfway pattern and still is part of the nearly two month trading range.

Below is the 60 minute chart for the GDM we’ve been following very closely during the formation of the H&S consolidation pattern. You can see what looked like a breakout when the price action gapped below the brown shaded S&R zone or neckline. The markets have a way to shake the bush before the original move you were looking for actually gets a chance to take place. The GDM rallied back up to the area of the tops of the left and right shoulders and with one finally gasp it gapped above the right shoulder high putting in an exhaustion gap. Now we have an unbalanced H&S consolidation pattern with one left shoulder and two right shoulders. Keep in mind this small potential trading range is still developing. Also there was a big gap made yesterday that may get tested.

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Dave , Todd . Laveta and Gary

The moment of truth has arrived for SLV as it approaches the brown shaded S&R zone / neckline at 14.70.

The 60 minute chart below shows the GDM running into its first resistance point at the previous left and right shoulder highs at 395. This would be a good place for it to take a little rest. A break above the 395 area would be positive for a run to the top of the potential trading range at 442. First it has to get past the 395 area.

The GDXJ is expanding its new trading range breaking above the center dashed line and has created another double bottom. The top of the trading ranges comes in around the 22.70 area.