TMV 2-3-18 Update:

TLT weekly:

TMV monthly:

TMV 1-17-18 Update:

TMV is a 3 X short the TLT 20 year treasure bond etf. This trade is based on the TLT. For well over three years now the TLT has been building out what looks like a massive H&S top with the top of the right shoulder now in play. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 250 shares of TMV, 3 X short the TLT, at the market at 18.83 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the right shoulder low on the daily chart for the TMV at 17.35. I’m anticipating the the right shoulder high on the TLT will be the ultimate high. There will be several more entry points if this trades starts to workout.

A second buy point would be on the breakout above the neckline on the daily chart for the TMV. A third buy point would be on a breakout above the double bottom trendline.

Below is the weekly chart for the TMV. The more conservative members may want to wait for the breakout above the double bottom trendline and the 30 week ema.

Below is a one year daily chart for the TLT which shows the possible double top right shoulder high that we’ll looked at on the weekly chart. Reverse symmetry may suggest we could see a small bounce off of the neckline as the 200 day ma is also intersecting the neckline.

This next chart is a weekly look at the TLT which puts everything in perspective. There is some nice symmetry forming on this 3 plus year H&S top where both the left and right shoulder highs formed at the same high. This chart also shows you why I’m willing to take an initial position up here toward the possible right shoulder high.

The long term monthly chart for the TLT is showing a possible classic H&S top building out. I’ve shown you many cases that a H&S pattern can buildout with the left shoulder and head forming inside of a wedge pattern, in this case the 5 year 5 point bearish rising wedge with the right shoulder forming on the backtest to the underside of the bottom rail. TLT has fallen just shy of a complete backtest to the bottom rail, but in this case it looks close enough. As you can see my entry point is very early if this very large H&S top plays out. There will be several more good entry points if things start playing as these charts are suggesting. We basically have two separate reversal patterns forming in the same location.

This is a stand alone excerpt from tonight’s Wednesday report.

Tonight I would like to start out by looking at the $CDNX, Canadian Venture Composite Index, which blasted higher last week and is following through this week. The reason this index is so important is because it not only has many junior precious metals stocks, but also many small cap energy related stocks as well as other speculative venture capital stocks from other sectors. This is a very good sign for the overall stock markets and commodities in general, as it shows risk capital is finding a home in which to park. This is another important clue that there is no top in the stock markets yet, because the risk on trade is still healthy.

CDNX Companies ftp://ftp.cdnx.com/SPCDNXIndex/Constituents.txt

This first chart for the CDNX is a daily look which shows an eight month H&S bottom in place. This chart shows the principal of Chartology at work. Remember a stock does one of three things. It is either building out a reversal pattern, a consolidation pattern or is in an impulse move. After eight months of base building you can see what happens when all the energy is released. There was no way anyone could have predicted that the current impulse move would start out like this one, but we did know that an impulse move would take place once the neckline was broken to the upside.

I have shown you many examples of how a big pattern can be made up of smaller patterns before a pattern is completed. Below is another daily chart for the CDNX that you should be familiar with which shows the nearly one and a half year flat top expanding triangle consolidation pattern. Not only did the price action breakout above the neckline, but also the top rail of the large triangle consolidation pattern. The bears were so exhausted they couldn’t defend the neckline, let alone the top rail of the flat top expanding triangle. A backtest, if we get one, would come into play around the 850 area.

This next chart for the CDNX is a long term weekly look which helped me find the top, back in late 2007. At the time, I called that huge trading range anything you wanted, because there were several pattens that could work out. The bottom line was, whichever way the price action broke out, a big move would follow. Keep in mind that was at the height of the bull market up until that point, and no one wanted to believe that big trading range could be a top.

The big clue came when the small red triangle formed on the right side of the trading range. Until it broke down I still couldn’t say with any confidence which way the big trading range would breakout, but once the price action broke below the bottom rail of that red triangle the writing was on the wall. Again, there was no way to know the magnitude of the collapse only that an important top was in place and an impulse move to the downside would follow. This was also about the time I had to quit posting at the original Goldtent because so many gold bugs were getting angry with my bearish posts.

The CDNX is a good producer of chart patterns as the monthly chart below shows. Our current triangle consolidation pattern has formed just above the 2008 crash low and is now making a multi year high.

I believe the breakout on this chart is potentially very significant for all the markets we cover here at Rambus Chartology.

All the best

Rambus

Rambus does not use a Portfolio Tracker. He Probably Should.

Here are his present Open Positions in the Leveraged Trade Portfolio.

These trades average $5,000 to $10,000 each. These are  3x leveraged ETFs based on the various market sectors covered by Rambus.

These trades were put on in the second half of this year. Many others were booked earlier in the year…………

Per Anum % Gains are for academic purposes only…this would be the % gain after 1 year if the rate of gain continued…which of course is very unlikely.

……………………………………………………………………..

CURE …(HEALTHCARE)………..Year End Price…..% Gain/Loss……….% per Annum

1…45.67 ON 9-7-17………………..46.60…………………2%……………………..6%

2…45.66 ON 9-20-17……………….46.60……………….2%………………………7%

DRN….(REAL ESTATE)

1…23.70 ON 11-8-17……………….22.84……………….- 3%……………………-18%

2…24.35 ON 12-18-17……………..22.84………………-2%……………………..-24%

EDC (EMERGING MARKETS)

1…97.44 ON 7-8-17………………..125.74………………29%…………………….63%

2…110.84 ON 9-11-17…………….125.74………………13%…………………….44%

ERX ( ENERGY)

1…26.08 ON 9-13-17………………34.93…………………34%……………………117%

2…30.34 ON 11-3-17………………34.93…………………15%……………………90%

FAS (FINANCIALS)

1…52.57 ON 9-18-17………………68.38………………….30%……………………103%

2…53.30 ON 9-27-17………………68.38…………………..28%……………………112%

INDL (INDIA)

1…81.75 ON 7-10-17………………102.10…………………25%……………………120%

LABU (BIOTEC)

1…50.75 ON 6-8-17………………..77.85……………………53%……………………91%

2…79.19 ON 9-7-17…………………77.85…………………..-1%…………………….-3%

3…81.07 ON 9-20-17………………..77.85………………….-4%……………………..-10%

MIDU (MID CAPS)

1…43.24 ON 11-16-17……………….46.43…………………..7%…………………….60%

RETL (RETAIL)

1…27.65 ON 9-15-17………………..36.04…………………..30%………………….103%

2…26.76 ON 9-20-17………………..36.04……………………40%………………….145%

RUSL ( RUSSIA)

1…50.40 ON 12-15-17……………..54.48……………………..8%…………………..192%

SOXL (SEMI CONDUCTORS)

1…97.04 0N 8-30-17…………………137.90………………….42%…………………..126%

2…98.57 ON 9-7-17………………….137.90………………….40%……………………95%

SPXL ( S & P 500)

1…37.22 ON 9-12-17………………..44.33……………………19%…………………….65%

2…38.60 ON 10-2-17………………..44.33…………………….15%……………………60%

TNA ( SMALL CAPS)

1…56.31 ON 9-12-17………………..70.27……………………..25%…………………..85%

2…63.31 ON 9-27-17…………………70.27…………………….11%…………………..44%

TQQQ (LARGE CAP TECH)

1…115.18 ON 9-12-17……………….138.72………………….24%…………………..82%

2…118.14 ON 10-5-17………………..138.72…………………17%…………………..70%

UWT ( OIL)

1…23.01 ON 6-1-17…………………..34.02…………………….48%…………………82%

2…27.54 ON 8-22-17…………………34.02……………………24%…………………..68%

UYM ( BASIC MATERIALS)

1…61.13 ON 7-19-17…………………74.05…………………….21%………………….45%

YINN ( CHINA)

1…23.01 ON 6-1-17………………….34.02…………………….48%…………………..82%

2…27.54 0N 8-12-17…………………34.02……………………24%…………………..62%

HAPPY NEW YEAR  RAMBUS CHARTOLOGY  MEMBERS

I HOPE MOST OF YOU TOOK MANY OF THESE TRADES….AS WELL AS THE TRADES WHICH HAVE BEEN CLOSED EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND THE TRADES IN THE LESS VOLITILE PORTFOLIOS.

ALL THESE OPEN POSITIONS ARE LISTED ON THE SIDEBAR INCLUDING TENTATIVE SELL STOPS. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN UPDATED TO YEAR END PRICES YET.

ALL THE BEST IN YOUR CONTINUING QUEST TO PROFIT IN THESE VARIOUS MARKETS IN 2018.

HAPPY NEW YEARS MR AND MRS RAMBUS

FULLGOLDCROWN

COPX Copper miners etf, has finally made it back up to the top rail of an expanding flat top triangle which is consolidating the June rally. The 20 day ema has just crossed back above the 50 day ema which is giving us a buy signal.

The weekly chart shows the expanding flat top triangle is forming just below a thee plus year double H&S bottom.

Below is the monthly chart for perspective. For those that want to start a position or want to add to your initial position can wait for the breakout which will take out two important trendlines at the same time. COPX has been somewhat weaker than the other stocks in this category that have already broken out above their neckline so it may play catchup for awhile. Keep in mind this is a large base and should produce a big move when all is said and done.

Tonight I would like to update some charts for the commodities complex as we are starting to see some action in this sector. Back in the summer months when we first started to get long some of the different commodities sectors, we got many breakouts from some very nice H&S bases. After the initial move up came the first consolidation phase that has been going on for nearly four months or so. We are now starting to see some of these consolidation patterns breaking out which should lead to the next impulse move higher in most cases.

Lets start with BHP, one of the biggest miners on the planet, that shows a good example of where we are at in the bull market. Today the price action broke out with a gap above the top rail of an almost 5 month triangle consolidation pattern. A backtest to the top rail would come in around the 43.50 area.

Now lets look at a long term weekly chart which shows some classic Chartology. We have discussed many times in the past when you see a small consolidation pattern form just below an important trendline, in this case the neckline, and one above, that is usually a very bullish setup which BHP is now showing.

Also keep in mind the size of that double H&S bottom that took three years to buildout. Big patterns lead to big moves. The minimum price objective of that double H&S bottom is measured from the head straight up to the neckline # two. Add that distance to the breakout point to get your minimum price objective.

This monthly chart put the double H&S bottom in perspective.

Copper is an important commodity as it can show the strength or weakness of the economy which is why it’s called Dr. Copper. This weekly chart shows copper’s big H&S bottom with the breakout in the summer. The head formed a 7 point triangle reversal pattern which actually reversed the bear market. Here is a case where we didn’t see a backtest to the neckline when the breakout took place. The 30 week ema has done a good job of holding support so far during Coppers new bull market.

This 20 year monthly chart shows how the H&S fits into the very big picture.

Below is the quarterly chart which shows some nice Chartology especially that 24 year flat top triangle’s price objective.

I originally took two positions, one in July and one in August of this year for the COPX, Copper Miners etf, in anticipation of the eventual breakout above the neckline which so far hasn’t happened just yet. It’s close but no cigar.

This monthly chart shows a double H&S bottom which many of the different commodities are showing. The 12 month simple moving average has done a good job of showing support during the new bull market.

SCCO, Southern Copper, is the strongest stock in this sector. The daily chart below shows it has just broken out from a rectangle consolidation pattern with a breakout gap.

If big patterns lead to big moves then this weekly chart for SCCO says we should expect a  very large impulse move higher as it’s trading at a new all time high after breaking out from a six year triangle consolidation pattern.

This 25 YEAR monthly chart below shows the breakout taking place above the six year triangle consolidation pattern which is now making new all time highs. Note the blue bullish rising wedge that formed as a halfway pattern back in the early 2000’s.

Some of the steel stocks are starting to show their pent-up bullishness as they are breaking out from major consolidation patterns. This monthly chart for NUE shows it broke out from its 9 year triangle consolidation pattern in 2016 and has been consolidating that breakout move by forming a second consolidation pattern just above the top rail which is the Red Bull flag.

This week SCHN is breaking out from a six year double H&S bottom. You would have to go all the way back to 2011 to equal today’s high.

This weekly chart for STLD shows it broke out from a one year bull flag three weeks ago.

This 20 year monthly chart shows the entire history for STLD. This chart also has some nice Chartology on it. Note the 2000 H&S bottom which launched STLD on its first bull market which produced several consolidation patterns along the way. When that bull market ended in 2008 it took 9 years to build out the massive triangle consolidation pattern which is now launching STLD on its next bull market leg higher. If you stand back and look at this chart from a distance you can almost see the beginnings of a parabolic move taking place.

Before I run out of time I would like to show you one of the weakest areas in the commodities complex which is $NATGAS. Last week it finally broke down from a year and a half H&S top. We now have a clean line in the sand, above the neckline is bullish and below is bearish.

Several weeks ago I tried to go long UNG as it was testing the bottom rail of an expanding triangle. After five touches of the bottom rail I thought it would hold one last time, but that wasn’t the case. After getting a decent pop off the last touch the price action reversed straight down and then gapped the bottom trendline where I exited the trade. Again UNG is bullish above the bottom rail and bearish below.

There are two patterns I’m keeping a close eye on for $WTIC. This first pattern is a rising flag formation which has just completed its fourth reversal point at the top rail. I would view the rising flag as a halfway pattern if the price action can take out the top rail.

As we’ve seen with some of the other commodity related stocks tonight many have formed a double H&S bottom reversal pattern. This 10 year daily chart for $WTIC shows it too has a double H&S pattern in play with a breakout above the neckline. The last time we looked at this chart I suggested it looked similarly inverse to that massive unbalanced H&S top, only on a smaller time frame.

This 20 year monthly chart shows how the double H&S bottom fits into the big picture.

This last chart for tonight is a 35 year quarterly chart which puts everything in perspective. Keep in mind the measured move for a H&S pattern when you look at this chart. Time to get this posted. All the best…Rambus

Excerpt from Rambus Weekend Report. “Gold Ratio Charts Update”

Editor’s Note : This is an important point that deserves its own separate post.

………………………………………

This next set of ratio charts I consider to be the most important ratio charts if you are deciding whether to be an investor in the INDU or in Gold.

When the price is rising The INDU ( Dow Jones Industrial Average ) (a proxy for General Stock Markets) is rising against Gold , and when it is falling Gold is rising against the Dow.

This first ratio chart for the INDU:Gold is a daily look which shows the ratio breaking out above the top rail of a bullish rising flag with a completed backtest. It doesn’t look that impressive on a daily chart, but when we look at the longer term ratio chart it becomes very important.

Below is a long term 10 year weekly chart which shows a massive H&S bottom on the ratio chart on top and a possible massive H&S top on gold on the bottom chart. Note  how the blue bullish rising flag formed just below the neckline on the ratio chart which has given the ratio chart the energy it needed to finally breakout. I’ve been showing this ratio combo chart for a long time now so the breakout above the neckline is falling into place.

Below is a 38 year daily line chart for the INDU:gold ratio chart which puts the very big picture in perspective. This ratio chart tells you when you need to be trading in the INDU and out of Gold and visa versa. As you can see you wanted to be trading in the INDU going into the 2000 bubble top and out of gold. In 2000 that all changed. From that point forward you wanted to be trading in the PM sector staying away from the INDU.

There are many gold investors that swear that the ratio has to go as low a 1 to 1 before the gold bull market is over. As you can see the ratio got as low as 5.5 in 2011 which is close enough IMHO especially since the price action that followed that double bottom low. There is a massive H&S bottom with the breakout underway. We have a very clear line in the sand for the staunch gold bulls which is the neckline. As long as the price action trades above that neckline the INDU is going to outperform gold.

As the breakout is just now taking place this ratio could rise for many years to come regardless of all the reasons it can’t. I will have no problem reversing my stance if I see the neckline is broken to the downside, but until it is I have to give the ratio chart the benefit of a doubt. All the best…Rambus

I’m going to use the GDX and GDXJ as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which are very similar to these two. Last Wednesday we looked at the short term daily charts to the longer term weekly charts to see how things were setting in the PM complex.

We first looked at the short term daily chart which was showing the H&S top and the smaller blue consolidation pattern that was building out below the neckline. The smaller blue patterns were kind of morphing, but were giving us a hint of what they would eventually look like when they competed.

Below is the short term daily chart for the GDX which shows the H&S top with the completed bearish rising flag. The breakout was a little sloppy, but today we are getting some follow through to the downside.

This short term daily chart for the GDXJ shows it broke out below the bottom rail of its bearish falling wedge this morning with a breakout gap.

Now lets look at the longer term daily chart for the GDX which shows the one year triangle consolidation pattern with the breakout now visible. The chances are high that the triangle consolidation pattern will be a halfway pattern to the downside with a price objective to the 14.88 area as shown by the blue arrows.

Below is the long term daily chart for the GDXJ which shows the H&S top on the short term daily chart as the 4th reversal point in its one year triangle consolidation pattern. The impulse measured move would be down to the 20.75 area as shown by the blue arrows.

This four year weekly chart for the GDX puts the triangle in perspective as a possible halfway pattern to the downside. It’s still possible we could see a backtest to the underside of the bottom rail of the triangle which would come into play around the 22.75 area.

Until the bulls can take out the top rail of the downtrend channel the bears are still in charge.

This short term weekly chart for the GDXJ puts its one year triangle in perspective as a possible halfway pattern to the downside.

This long term weekly chart shows how the triangle fits into the very big picture. Again all the bulls need to do is take out the top rail of the bear market downtrend channel and all will be right with the world again. As you can see they have tried three times in the last year and a half, but so far haven’t been able to do it.

I seen a lot of disappointment today at the forum on the volatility with NVO.V and the rest of the NOVO related stocks. If you bought into these stocks then you need to be responsible for your trades. Sir Plunger stated many times that these were speculative stocks and the volatility would be great. That is the nature of these types of trades, big risk equals big reward if it works.

One of my first big life changing trades took place back in 1991 just before the start of the first Gulf war. I was in the middle of raising a family so extra cash for investing was hard to come by back then. I set a goal the year before to save $100 a week to invest in the stock market and when I built it up to $5000 I would begin to invest it.

Back then charts were hard to come by unless you made your own charts on graph paper which I had been doing for years. Stock quotes were delayed by 15 minutes and fractions were still being used. You talk about the Stone Age.

In the fall of 1990 the saber rattling began and it looked like the US was going to go to war with Iraq. I still remember how negative the environment was when it came to the stock market. Analysis were saying if we went to war the stock markets would collapse as we were going up against the 5th largest army in the world and no one knew how the war would go. The economy was going to go into a bear market because oil was going to go through the roof. Nothing positive was ever mentioned just that the world as we knew was going to dramatically  change.

By the end of 1990 it was inevitable that we were going to war, but it was just a matter of when. By that time I had saved nearly $5000 to invest in the stock market. The INDU was basically in a bear market for most of 1990, but there was a glimmer of hope when I began to recognize a possible small H&S bottom with the head forming in October. The INDU rallied about 300 points which was a lot back in those days into Christmas. Then came the beat of war drums stating in early January of 1991. Over a period of two weeks the INDU lost 200 points when it was certain the US was going to war. It’s very important to understand how negative every one was at that time. What is going on with North Korea today is nothing compared to January of 1991.

I had dabbled in options back then but never had much luck. I learned it was a tough game to be successful at, but I knew the basics. What I was seeing on the daily chart was a possible much bigger H&S bottom with the 200 point decline in January being the bottom of a possible right shoulder low, using the neckline symmetry line. It was a tough decision to make but I decided to use the $5000 I had saved to buy some out of the money call options on the OEX 100. Over a period of 5 days I had bought a ton of cheap options for 1/4 and 3/8’s that were going to expire in less than four weeks on the third Friday in February spending the entire $5000.

When I look back in hindsight it was probably the dumbest thing I could have done. I worked my butt off for a year to save $100 a week and I was going to blow it all in less than four weeks.

Below is a static chart I built years ago when I first subscribed to stocks charts to see what that trade looked like if I had had stock charts at my disposal. In January of 1991 you can see how the price action was testing the neckline symmetry line, red circle, while all the saber rattling was taking place. I had all my options bought and now I had to wait for the start of the war which no one really knew when the actual day would be. I can still remember vividly when the war started. We were eating supper when a special report flashed on the TV saying we were bombing Iraq. In those first few hours no one knew what as going to happen, but it was the first time I seen a thing called a Smart Bomb. By morning it was clear the war was not going to be a bad as everyone feared.

The INDU gapped up over 100 points on the open as everyone was so relieved, but my out of the money options still had a long ways to go before they got in the money. As the price action reached the neckline area of the larger H&S bottom the INDU built out that beautiful red bullish rising wedge which was a sight for sore eyes.

My plan was to hold all the options until the Friday of expiration because back then it seemed like the INDU would rally into options expiration. I also used a simple sell/stop method of moving my sell/stop up to just below the previous days low. Once the options got into the money they exploded in value. Options I had bought three weeks earlier for a 1/4 were selling over $4.00.

I managed to hang on until the Thursday before expiration. It’s hard to see, red circle at the top of the chart, but that day the INDU had a pretty good selloff so I just called my broker and said lets sell. In just over three weeks I turned that $5,000 into $120,000. Had I stayed just one more day and sold my options at market on close they would have been worth $143,000 as the INDU rallied strongly in to options expiration.

I remember my broker calling several times a day when the options started running wanting me to sell and take my profits, but I held my ground and was going to be responsible for my actions win lose or draw. It was a great learning experience for me in more ways than one. Unless you go through something like that in real time, you won’t know the mental fortitude it takes to follow your own plan when everyone is telling you to do something different.

This one trade set off a string of events in my life that would have never happened if I hadn’t taken on the risk. I ended up buying a restaurant that ended up being very successful and by participating in the bull market in the 1990’s I and was able to basically retire at the end of the tech bubble in 2000 at the age of 50. For me retirement isn’t sitting in a rocking chair on the front porch. Retirement for me is the freedom to do what you want to do when you want to do it.

The bottom line is that you have to be responsible for each and every trade you make and don’t put the blame on someone else or the PPT, manipulation or whatever excuse many traders like to use. Sir Plunger laid out a well thought out report last weekend stating the good with the bad and it was going to be a speculative trade. Maybe it will workout and maybe it won’t, but I took my positions with the understanding that I’m responsible for my own actions and no one else. Trading in hindsight is the easiest thing in the world to do, but in the real world trading in hindsight doesn’t work. Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving Weekend. All the best…Rambus