In tonight’s report I would like to take a good hard unbiased look at some of the big cap precious metals stocks that have been in rally mode since the first of June. This rally has been pretty impressive so far but is it the real thing? Last night I showed you some charts on the GDM going from the 60 minute short term look to a year and a half look that showed the two big patterns we have in place right now, the falling flag and the inverse H&S bottom. Tonight I would like to follow up with some big cap PM stocks, on the 60 minute chart and the bigger long term chart charts, that have their own respective year long trading ranges.

First lets look at the 60 minute chart of the GDM that I showed you last night that had a H&S top forming. Today GDM did some more work on the right shoulder that is making the H&S top a little more symmetrical now. Keep this H&S top in your mind when we look at some of the other big cap PM stocks in a bit.

Below is the 2 year weekly chart that shows the blue parallel downtrend channel that we’ve been following for some time now. These are the two chart patterns I’m going to show you tonight, the little H&S top on the 60 minute charts and this year long blue trading range on the longer term big cap PM charts. The combination of where these little H&S tops lie in regards to the top rail of these big one year trading ranges maybe be giving us a big clue that we are just at the top of this one year trading range that may continue for who knows how much longer. I do know everyone is super bullish right now on the precious metals complex so maybe now might be a good time to go against the crowd. After we look at some of the more important big cap precious stocks you can make up your own mind.

First lets look at biggest of the big cap PM stocks ABX. This 2 hour chart shows a potential H&S top that has yet to break below the neckline. Keep in mind where this potential H&S top resides on the longer term chart following this short term look.

Below is the daily chart for ABX that shows our little H&S top has formed just below the bottom rail of the big blue bearish rising wedge as a backtest so far.

Now the weekly chart that shows our little H&S top forming at the bottom rail of the bearish rising wedge as the backtest. You can see how critical this area is right here on the biggest PM stock there is.

Lets now look at the star performer for this rally off the June low, RGLD.

Below is a daily look at RGLD that shows it’s big one year trading range is a rising wedge formation. You can’t really see the small H&S top but it’s there just below the top rail at reversal point #4.

Below is a weekly chart that shows the rising wedge with our little H&S top forming just below the top blue rail at reversal point #4.

I have to show you the monthly chart for RGLD as it ties all the time frames together. As you can see this is the third backtest to the bottom rail of the long term black rising wedge. How critical is this backtest?

FNV has been another high flyer during this June rally.

The weekly chart of FNV looks a lot like RGLD that shows a very long term black uptrend channel and now another backtest from the underside making it the fourth now.

SLW has been another star performer during the June rally.

SLW’s trading range has been a triangle formation. As you can see it had a false breakout of the bottom rail and then reversed direction and rallied all the way backup to the top blue rail.

Below is the 2 hour chart for Randgold.

Below is the daily chart that shows Randgold’s expanding triangle and our little H&S top at reversal point #4.

Randgold long term look.

Lets look at one more big cap PM stock GG and its 2 hour bar chart.

Below is a daily chart for GG that shows its black falling flag as its one year trading range.

The weekly chart really puts the blue falling flag in perspective.

This last chart for GG shows its entire history going all the way back to 1994. You can see its classic bull market that ended with that massive H&S top.

This is where we stand tonight in regards to the big cap precious metals stocks. Keep in mind those little H&S tops, on the two hour charts, weren’t there two days ago. They started to show their self yesterday with some follow up work on the right shoulder today. They still haven’t broken down yet so they are still incomplete patterns. What I showed you tonight, on the bigger one year trading ranges, is the top rails are still hot and to be respected even though there were many different one year congestion zones. Nobody knows with 100% certain how things will evolve from here but there is a lot of evidence that this June rally could just be another reaction within the one year trading ranges exhibited by most of the PM stocks. We need to be prepared for whatever the markets throw our way. If these small H&S tops start to breakdown then we will need to act accordingly. The first thing will be to exit the Junior Portfolio stocks. The big cap precious metals stocks are truly at an inflection point right here and now in which we can take advantage of with just a little more information. Keep and open mind and lets see what kind of hand the markets deals us. All the best…Rambus

PS: Just so you know I’m not bias. Here is the possible inverse H&S bottom everyone and there brother is now seeing. May the best pattern win…

What a difference two weeks can make in the precious metals markets. Going from a confirmed downtrend to an uptrend, at least on the short term basis, was rather swift and didn’t leave much time for one to reverse direction to get back in sync with the new uptrend. At this time the rally is still in its infancy as there is more work to do but there are some positive things taking place, over the last two weeks, that could show us a major turning point maybe taking place in the precious metals sector. As always it’s one step at a time with each step confirming or not confirming the price action. In this Weekend Report I would like to look at the HUI to see how things have changed over the last two weeks. With that being said the first thing we need to see is a higher low to even consider an uptrend is taking place. Below is a daily line chart that I showed you a month or so ago that shows the big long black dashed support and resistance rail, possible neckline, that defines the positive or negative trend for the HUI. Below is negative and above is positive. At the time I showed you this chart there was no right shoulder in place as the price action was declining after hitting that big S&R rail. As of right now you can see the June low is higher than the December 2013 low which is the first sign of a possible new uptrend taking place. I’ve added some smaller black dashed horizontal lines that shows how the support and resistance lines have been working . The HUI has now rallied back up to the 236 area where it’s finding some very short term resistance. The perfect breakout scenario would be to see the HUI rally above the last horizontal resistance line at 236, hit the big S&R rail or neckline, back off to the 236 area and make a run above the big S&R rail which I would then consider to be the completion of a one year inverse H&S bottom.The potential neckline is now at the 250 area which is the most important number to watch for a breakout and confirmation of the bottom and a new uptrend is underway. There is a very bullish setup with the RSI indicator at the top of the chart that shows us a hidden bullish divergence. Note how the RSI made a lower low in June vs the December low while the HUI made a higher low in June vs the December low. This is a very positive sign for the HUI. Next I would like to show you another very important support and resistance line, on the long term weekly chart, that showed the initial H&S top several years ago right after we opened our doors at Rambus Chartology. The top neckline #1 shows the support and resistance rail  starting all the way back in 2009 and didn’t end until the HUI finally broke below it for good in November of 2012. The red arrows shows how it acted as resistance and the green arrows shows how it reversed its role to support once it was broken to the upside. Note the breakout from the upper neckline #1 that looked like the smaller H&S was complete and the new bear market was beginning. If you’ve been in the markets for any length of time you know there can be false breakouts for even the best looking patterns. As you can see the price action fell down to create a double bottom that looked like it was going to negate the upper H&S top. The purple arrows shows the price broke above neckline #1 but quickly burned out and reversed and declined back below neckline #1. This is how the markets talk to you. Once the price action traded back below neckline #1 is when we went short as the HUI was trading back below the support and resistance rail which ended up creating a bull trap. The rest is history from that bull trap just above the S&R line. From that point is where the bear market really started to accelerate to the downside. Now lets fast forward to our recent bottom. You can see how the red arrows have been holding resistance for over a year now. What has developed over the last two weeks is the low last June and our current low this June are at the same low with the December low being the low for this bear market so far creating the possible inverse H&S bottom. I’ve labeled the December low as a bear trap because that’s what its been so far. As I’ve pointed out many times in the past that when you get a false breakout its usually the final washout phase before the price action reverses its trend and moves strongly in the opposite direction leaving many behind that failed to see what took place. This next chart for the HUI is a shorter term daily look that shows you just how fast the HUI went from a bearish setup to a bullish setup in just two weeks time. First lets focus in on the blue falling wedge that had a breakout accompanied by a breakout gap that looked very promising. At the time I had a parallel downtrend channel that was made by taking the the top black rail of the now bullish falling wedge and adding it to the late March low. Also notice the brown shaded support and resistance zone that had been working very well defining when the HUI was positive or negative. Once the HUI broke below the bottom blue rail of the falling wedge and the brown shaded support and resistance zone it looked very promising that the price action was headed back down to the the December low. After the initial breakout the price action chopped around for a little over a week consolidating the drop out of the blue falling wedge. Nothing looked abnormal at that point. The first real sign that something was amiss with the downtrend is when the HUI gapped above both the blue rail of the falling wedge and the top rail of the black falling wedge. That was a major red flag for me as that wasn’t supposed to happen and when something that isn’t supposed to happen, happens, one needs to take a good hard look at the new situation with a open mind which is exactly what I did. Note how the second days price action, after the breakout from both falling wedges, rallied all the way through the brown shaded support and resistance zone which should have been strong resistance. As you can see on day number three of the breakout the HUI traded at the top of the brown shaded support zone which now had reversed its role to what had been resistance to now support over the next four days. The 50 dma also came in at the top of the brown shaded support and resistance zone to offer its own support. That’s all I need to see to then go long NUGT on June 13th along with USLV. As with any discipline in the markets, whether it be Elliot Wave, cycles or whatever one needs to have confirmation of a trend change before you invest your hard earned capital. Next I would like to show you the complete history for the HUI that shows all the consolidation patterns and impulse moves during its secular bull market. I have said this many times in the past , the precious metals and precious metals stocks create some of the best looking chart patterns of any sector out there. Note the beautiful blue triangle consolidation patterns that formed during the HUI’s bull market years up until the 2008 crash. The red arrows shows where the actual impulse moves began at the last reversal point in each consolidation patterns. Note the beautiful H&S top in 2008 that led to the first real correction for the HUI. Next you can see the massive H&S top that has led to our current low. What I find potentially very bullish is where our current and potential inverse H&S is forming. Since the December low last year, which is the head portion of the inverse H&S bottom, the bottom rail of the major uptrend channel has just made its second low which is a higher low , the June 2014 low on the bottom rail. This one year inverse H&S bottom is forming exactly where one would want to see a reversal pattern like this form. Note the RSI at the top of the chart that is showing a very large bullish hidden divergence. It’s also showing a series of higher highs and higher lows. When looking at the indicators on the sidebar you can see the price action on the blue histogram has just moved above the zero line and the MACD has just had a positive cross. The slow Stoch has just crossed and in now above 20. Below is just a simple weekly candlestick chart for the HUI that shows the inverse H&S bottom that has been developing for one year now. There are a lot of ways to use candlesticks but I like to use the back and white candles to show me when a stock is in an impulse move. When there is a strong impulse move down you will see a string of back candles and when a stock is in a strong impulse move up you will see a string of white candles on the weekly and especially the monthly charts. This week marks the third week in a row now that we’ve seen a white candlestick. One last note on this chart. As you can see the June low in 2013 and our current June low happened at the same price with the head portion, of this potential inverse H&S bottom, being the bear market low made in December of last year. There has been a 6 month time cycle in the PM complex that has been around since the beginning of the bull market. Sometimes it gets out of whack a bit but I always look for the June and December months for changes in a trend. This last chart for the HUI is a long term weekly look that shows a roughly three year time cycle. If the HUI is truly embarking on the next big three year rally cycle then we’re going to see some very strong rallies followed by periods of consolidation that will make it hard to ride the bull. We may not pick the absolute high or low, no body does, but with Chartology on our side we will be able to look for different chart patterns for clues on what to expect next. I’ve moved the black three year rectangle to the right just a tad so you can see our June low. I have just one simple question to ask as you look at this chart below.

What if this is THE BOTTOM?

All the best…Rambus

As you know the juniors have been leading the way higher since this move higher began. I would like to show you the CDNX which was our proxy for the small cap PM stocks before all the new etf’s came out. This is a real good gauge on how the small cap universe is doing, in general, as there are small cap oil and gas stocks in there as well.

Presently the CDNX ( a Canadian Listed Index) has been relegated to the back pages and is watched by very few analysts anymore , but I believe it has an incredible story to tell and is still a very important clue as to the whole Precious Metals Complex

If this index is doing well that means there is some risk capital at work which is good for the entire markets. This is similar to the Russel 2000 small cap index for the stock markets. One always likes to see money flowing into these little guys as it shows overall strength.

This first chart for the CDNX shows a blue bullish falling wedge similar to the big cap PM stock indexes I’ve been showing you.

This next chart shows the inverse H&S bottom that I showed you earlier in the year when we tried our hand on the long side back in January and February of this year. As you can see it broke out above the neckline which was a good indication that the juniors were bottoming. After a brief rise the price action fell back to the neckline. It looked like the neckline may fail as there were so many different backtests taking place since the middle of March. It now looks like the neckline has held its ground as the price action is starting to rise. The bullish setup is that we have the blue falling wedge forming right on top of the neckline. As I have stated many times in the past when you have a smaller chart pattern form just below, just above or right on an important trendline that is a very big clue that the trendline is hot and to be respected.

I would now like to put our inverse H&S bottom in perspective by looking at a weekly chart for the CDNX. You can see how critical the neckline is to reversing the major downtrend that began in 2011. This is a perfect location to see an inverse H&S bottom form, at the end of a major move down. What I would really like to see happen next is see the CDNX takeout the high on the little red falling wedge for more confirmation the trend has indeed reversed and is turning up.

There is another reversal pattern in play that I showed you 6 months ago when the CDNX broke out from the big blue falling wedge. Six months is a long time and a lot of things can happen that one can lose track of. This is one reason why I keep literally 1000’s of charts that I may not update very often but they can give me perspective when there is a possible trend change. Again what I would like to see now is for the CDNX to make a higher high to help confirm the breakout of the bullish falling wedge.

I would like to show you one last chart for the CDNX that helped me determine the top for the precious metals stocks in 2008. At the top of the chart in 2007 and 2008 you can read what I wrote back then as the chart pattern didn’t show what direction a breakout would go. The little red triangle that formed on the bottom rail of that big horizontal trading range was a very big clue that the price action would eventually breakdown even though the bigger blue trading range hadn’t yet. I had no idea of what was to come. As you can see once that blue trading range broke down it was all over for those that didn’t get out in time. The drop was so vertical that most PM investors were in shock and awe. Keep in mind those investors in the PM bull market hadn’t seen anything like what was about to happen before. There was a certain cockiness back then that nothing like this could ever happen to the precious metals stocks. I’ve learned the hard way many years ago that one never becomes cocky no matter how right you think your are. The markets can make a fool out of you before you even know you’re a fool !

. I have a lot more work to do tonight as these four different portfolios are really keeping me busy. ,Especially the Junior Miner Portfolio which is potentially very exciting . I just wanted to show you this possible turning point in the CDNX that may have a far reaching affect for the rest of the precious metals complex. All the best…Rambus

In this Weekend Report I would like to look at some charts for the precious metals complex and some stock markets that have been moving opposite to each other since the PM sector topped out in 2011. Has this Divergence run its course , or not ?

PRECIOUS METALS

First lets look at a daily chart for gold that shows the bearish blue falling wedge that broke down about two weeks ago. Right now it’s in the process of backtesting the bottom rail around the 1265 area, I also drew in a thin black dashed horizontal line under all the previous lows at 1280, which should also act as resistance if the bottom rail of the falling wedge gets strongly backtested. The all important 150 moving average comes in today at 1279.65. As you can see from the March high gold has been making lower lows and lower highs for the most part which constitutes a downtrend.

The chart below shows how effective the 150 dma was during the bull market years as support and now it seems to be reversing its role to resistance. As you can see there was a little aberration at the March high this year but gold has since fell below the 150 dma again.

This next chart for gold shows all the important moving averages that shows how nicely they all align once a major move starts progressing. Once the correction ended in 2008 it took several months for all the moving averages to turn up, but once they did they showed you what a bull market looks like. At the bull market top you can see how they started to fail and began to role over. During the first real impulse move down they all lined up in order until the June low last year. As this consolidation period has progressed they have been moving sideways as you would expect. The main thing right now is the price action in gold is trading below all the important moving averages. The 300 dma is the most critical one of watch for the long term move in gold. That one I don’t want to see violated during the bear market.

Lets look at one more chart for gold before we move on . This is a long term weekly chart that shows the red triangle consolidation pattern that has been forming since the first low made late June of last year. Keep in mind we are still building out a consolidation pattern and the next impulse move down won’t start until the bottom rail of the red triangle is broken to the downside. If you look at the indicators on the side bar you can see the blue histogram is now below the zero line and the MACD has just recently crossed to the downside. The slow stochastic is still moving lower. On the RSI indicator at the top of the chart you can see it broke below the black dashed trendline. In a strong move up you like to see the RSI stay above the 40 area or so, green arrows and in a bear market you look for the 60 area for signs of a reversal, red arrows.

Lets now look at silver that shows the big Diamond – Triangle pattern that has been forming for over a year already. It looks like a breakout took place about two weeks ago and a backtest is now taking place. The bottom rail of the one year triangle is a little inconclusive as there are so many ways one can draw that important trendline. For right now, on this spot silver chart, this is how I’ve drawn in the bottom rail. Normally I would like to see where a possible breakout gap may have been made but on the silver spot chart there is no gap.

If we turn our attention to the SLV we can see two gaps that were made over the bottom blue rail of the big triangle that maybe showing us exactly where the bottom rail should be placed. If the bottom rail is correctly place on SLV we could expect a backtest to come in around the 18.75 area. It’s an ugly breakout for sure but since the 4th reversal point in the big blue triangle, SLV has made lower highs and lower lows all the way down to our most recent low which is a downtrend and the direction you want to trade. If you think playing the short side for silver has been hard think how hard it is for the bulls that keep trying to buy the bottoms since the 4th reversal point on the blue triangle made in February of this year. If you love pain go for it.

This long term weekly look for SLV shows the potential breakout of the blue triangle, chart above, and the big neckline. SLV has now traded two weeks below both important trendlines which is a plus. The longer the price action stays below both trendlines the better. I know how hard it is to maintain your emotions, especially during a potentially big breakout. You get the breakout and it looks like the impulse move is beginning then you get a backtest and you begin to question the validity of your decision. I’ve been showing you this potential setup for several months now when SLV was much higher. The main thing to understand is nothing is broken yet even if we get a complete backtest. Nothing is 100% guaranteed in the markets so you have to go with the odds until something tells you differently. It can be very hard to do that as the markets can be an emotional roller coaster.

The precious metals stock indexes topped out in March of this year and have been in a downtrend ever since creating lower highs and lower lows the whole time. There are three red small consolidation patterns that make up the blue bearish falling wedge within the March high downtrend channel. The little brown shaded box shows where I would expect the backtest to run out of gas at the 213 area which is less that five points away. Again, this is how the market tests your endurance by these counter trend rallies that look like the next move higher is just beginning. When you look at the downtrend channel since the March high place your self in the bull camp and try to find the best trade possible keeping in mind no body picks the exact bottom and top. Then look to the left side of the chart when the HUI was in rally mode from the December low to the March high. You can see how much easier it was to be long instead of being short. The trend is your friend until it isn’t.

This next chart for the HUI is a long term daily chart that shows the big blue falling flag that began forming in late June of last year. The little red falling wedge is the blue falling wedge on the chart above. So far nothing is broken as we await the possible complete backtest to the red falling wedge around the 213 area.

GENERAL STOCK MARKETS

I’ve been getting a lot of requests to show some charts for the stock markets as it looks like a lot of folks are giving up in the precious metals complex being long or short. This is what a big long consolidation pattern can do to you so I’ve started following the stock markets now for those that want to follow along.

Lets start with a daily chart for the SPX that shows the morphing Diamond pattern I showed you a week or two ago. You can see the original Diamond, blue dashed trendlines, had a false breakout of the top rail and then turned right around and fell back into the Diamond only to have a similar false breakout of the bottom rail. Technically this kind of stuff is challenging but if you are aware of how a pattern can morph, as I have shown you many times in the past, you can use this information to your advantage. Note the clean breakout and no backtest. Unless we get a backtest to the 1905 area the SPX is on its way higher and it’s not waiting around for you to make up your mind whether you want to get on board or not.

The INDU has formed a 6 point bullish rising wedge that had a false breakout with one last move to the bottom rail and then the breakout to the upside. Here you can see the Dow had a nice backtest before it moved higher.

I have a chart for gold that shows all the consolidation patterns that formed during its bull market that I call, Just Another Brick in the Wall. I have now put that title on the weekly Dow chart that shows one consolidation pattern forming on to of the next. This chart just goes back to the 2011 bottom.

The NDX just another brick in the wall.

The RUT probably had the biggest correction since the first of the year but it looks like it wants to play catchup now.

There is one area that looks pretty good right now even though it has had a good rally. The SOX , semiconductor index, broke out of a beautiful symmetrical triangle a couple of weeks ago and hasn’t looked back.

I would now like to show you the monthly chart for the SOX that is incredibly bullish looking. Keep in mind this chart goes back to the bubble phase back in 2000. For those of you that have never experienced what a true parabolic move looks and feels like put your self at the blue arrow at the 185 area and try to imagine what it would have felt like to go on that ride. I can tell from first hand experience it was pretty incredible. Once the bubble phase ended it was time for the SOX to correct all the excess from that parabolic rise. It took a 10 year giant falling wedge to complete the correction. Note how the top rail of the big 10 year falling wedge reversed its role form resistance to support several times. This chart shows Chartology at its best. It just doesn’t get any prettier. Note the little red bull flag that formed just below the top rail before it was broken to the upside. That little red bull flag gave the SOX the energy it need to finally break that huge top rail of the falling wedge. Note the blue triangle that formed as a backtest to the top rail. Now I would like to focus your attention to the black dashed horizontal line at the top of the chart, support and resistance line. That little blue triangle I showed you on the first chart above for the SOX formed right on top of that S&R line. That S&R line should now act as support on any backtest. I plan to post more long term charts that got their start from the 2000 parabolic peak that have been consolidating those gains over the last 14 years. I think these charts are telling us we are in a huge bull market that many don’t want to believe is possible. The 14 years of bear market, huge multi year consolidation patterns mentality, makes it hard to believe the bull market that started at the 2009 crash low has any strength left in which it can rise to new highs. The reality is some of the stock market indexes are indeed making new all times highs along with some European stock market indexes regardless of all the reason they shouldn’t be.

All the best…Rambus

In this Weekend Report I would like to compare gold to some of the more important markets to get a feel for the bigger picture that seems to be shaping up or gold. During gold’s bull market years it generally was stronger than most areas of the markets but since the 2011 high that has changed significantly. Gold has been under performing just about everything to a certain degree. The picture I’m going to try and convey to you is gold still has a lot of work to do on the downside before it can put in a long term low. We can see short to intermediate term rallies at anytime but to get a bear market bottom gold is going to have to start showing some strength compared to a lot of areas in the markets.

The first ratio chart I would like to show you compares gold to the US Dollar. This weekly chart encompasses gold’s bull market that began in 2001 vs the US Dollar. As you can see it was a classic bull market that created one consolidation pattern on top of the other with the exception of the 2008 crash. From the low in 2008 gold went on to form higher highs and higher lows until the bull market top in 2011. As you can see the major uptrend channel was broken in April of last year when carnage came to the PM complex.

There is good news and bad news with this ratio chart. First the bad news. As you can see this ratio has been building out an expanding falling wedge where a fib 62% retrace would come in around the 11.28 area. This would coincide with gold going under 1000. The good news is this expanding falling wedge could be a consolidation pattern within the gold’s secular bull market. All we know right now is that gold is in a bear market as its been making lower lows and lower highs since the bull market top in September of 2011.

This next chart I would like to show how the TLT, 20 year bond, is doing compared to gold. This chart has been speaking volumes to me as it does a good job defining the big trends in gold. As you can see when the TLT is under performing gold the yellow metal rises. Since gold made its bull market top in 2011 the ratio has been steadily rising carving out a massive H&S bottom. This ratio formed a red triangle right on top of the neckline that strongly suggested that this ratio would begin to rise once the breakout and backtest occurred. Note the last bar on the far right hand side of the chart that shows this ratio in now starting to takeoff as all the work is done. This chart is telling us the decline in gold isn’t going to end anytime soon. Yes we could get a short term rally but not a major rally at this time IMHO.

The long term weekly chart that compares gold to oil has been forming a massive triangle reversal pattern that broke down in June of last year. As you can see its been building out a red bearish rising wedge, just below the bottom rail of the big triangle, that is just now starting to breakout to the downside. It looks like oil is going to be stronger than gold on a relative basis.

Lets now compare gold to the CCI, commodities index that shows how this ratio formed a massive inverse H&S bottom that led to the bull market for gold vs the CCI. This chart shows some classic Chartology. The massive inverse H&S base had a price objective up to 324, black arrow at the top of the chart. It then formed the red 5 point triangle reversal pattern that ended the bull run. If you look at the far right hand side of the chart you will see this ratio is right on the verge of making new yearly lows. It wouldn’t surprise me if this ratio reverses symmetry down to the 190 area before it finds some important support.

Next I would like to compare gold to the SPX because that is where the real truth lies. I first posted this chart right after the breakout from the unbalance double top. At the time I was wondering if that was truly a major reversal for this ratio. Keep in mind gold had just made a new all time high and the SPX was in the 2011 correction. As you can see the SPX has clearly been the place to invest vs gold since the 2011 top. For whatever reasons, why gold has to go up and the stock markets have to go down, this Chartology ratio chart says just the opposite. I believe this ratio chart is showing us cash is leaving gold and finding its way into the stock markets.

This next chart compares gold to the NDX which has the 100 biggest tech stocks. The double top on this index has more of a traditional look. Note the little inverse H&S bottom that formed in 2000 that led to the bull market for gold vs the NDX.

There is one place that gold is outperforming another area. This ratio chart literally blows my mind by the magnitude that gold has been rising vs the XAU. I’ve been showing the chart for years expecting this ratio to revert back to the means. Just when you think it’s ready to do so it produces another all time high high. There was no one on the planet that could have foreseen this ratio being so far out of whack especially during the bull market years. As you can see once the ratio broke above 6.00 that was the beginning of the end for the precious metals stocks vs gold. One day we’ll know what has caused this relationship between gold and the XAU to get this far out of sync but for the time being that isn’t important, it’s knowing that it’s way out of sync and not getting any better, that’s what’s important to grasp.

This next chart for gold is a combo chart that shows how gold is doing in other major currencies. Since gold’s all time high vs the US dollar in 2011 the Yen is the only currency to make a higher high. The euro basically put in a double top while the rest have been making lower highs for the most part. As you can see since the small rally in May of this year gold has been falling in all these major currencies.

I know how hard it is for a lot of folks to look at this last chart for gold that is showing a potential massive H&S top building out. My job is to interpret the Chartology with an unbiased opinion nothing more nothing less. I wish we were looking at a massive inverse H&S bottom like in 2000 but that isn’t the case. We’ve been following this potential H&S top for eight months or so at Rambus Chartology waiting patiently for this pattern to mature. It looks like 1200 is going to be the key area of support to watch even though 1180 has the previous two lows. Stay tuned as all these charts above are painting a rather negative picture for gold that seems to be getting weaker not stronger vs many different sectors of the markets. All the best…Rambus

Tonight I would just like to look at some random PM charts, in no special order, to get a feel of where we are in the near to long term look.  As you know the PM complex finally broke down from their two month consolidation patterns which is part of a bigger 10 month consolidation pattern. In most cases the consolidation patterns have a down slopping look to them that tells me the price action wants to head lower. In a normal downtrend a consolidation pattern will form sideways like a triangle or rectangle or will slope up against the downtrend such as a bear flag that has a higher high and higher low before it gives way to the downside.

Lets start with a four month 2 hour chart for the GDX that shows the downtrend that has been in place since the March high. After breaking out from the five point bearish expanding rising wedge GDX went on to form two small red consolidation patterns that make up the bigger blue bearish falling wedge. The blue arrows measures each half of the big impulse move down with the blue bearish falling wedge in the middle. There is a good chance we may see a backtest back to the underside of the blue falling wedge before the price action moves lower.

The one year chart for the GDX begins to show you the bigger picture which is so important to grasp. Our current downtrend channel has almost the exact same angle as the downtrend channel on the left side of the chart.

This next 2 1/2 year daily chart for the GDX starts to paint the big picture that we’ve been focusing in on since the possible 4th reversal point on the big blue bearish falling flag. The little red falling wedge is the same pattern as shown on the charts above. The big blue falling flag shows you the fight between the bulls and the bears and how the bears have been able to take the price action lower regardless of all the fundamental reasons why the PM stocks should be going up.

This last chart for the GDX shows you the very long term weekly look that has the massive H&s top reversal pattern in place that has led to our current price. You can see the blue falling flag that is now 10 months in the making with our little red falling wedge that I showed you on the first chart above. You can see this week was the breakout week for the little red falling wedge. This helps us in confirming the all important downtrend is still in place. I’m sure you’ve heard the expression, it’s always easier try to trade in the same direction as the major trend. This chart shows you why. We were only able to capture just small profits during each of the little counter trend rallies you see on this chart. You had to be very nimble to get in and get out without taking a big loss. If you hesitated the GDX showed no mercy on you. Our best trade was when we were able to short into the downtrend in the first few days of December of 2012 and exiting our shorts in August of 2013. The main trend was our friend.

Next I would like to show you some long term charts for gold we’ve been following for some time now as nothing has broken the downtrend that has been in place since the September 2011 high. This first chart shows what would happen if our current blue triangle works out as a halfway pattern to the downside. Keep in mind gold has a lot of work to do yet but as long as it keeps making lower lows and lower highs this chart gives us something to follow.

Below is a long term monthly chart for gold that shows a massive H&S top forming. If the red triangle breaks to the downside that move will complete the massive H&S top. The symmetry is absolutely beautiful as shown by the neckline symmetry rails. I know few believe gold could produce such a move down but few thought that gold would ever get this low back in 2011. Whatever everyone wants nobody gets.

About four years ago the Aden Sisters posted a chart similar to this one I built after reading their article on gold. Keep in mind this was before the 2011 high in gold. This is a time cycle chart that goes all the way back to the early 1960’s which shows an eight year low followed by an eleven year high. This is my version of their chart they showed in their public article. As you can see the top in 2011 came in a few months earlier than what the vertical blue ling shows but for an eleven year cycle high I thought it was dead on the money. What this time cycle chart is now showing us is that the next important 8 year cycle low should come in around February of 2017. Keep in mind it doesn’t give a price just the time component. So the expected important low in 2017 can be anywhere on the chart. Maybe lower than the current price action or higher depending on what gold does over the next three years or so. At any rate I found this chart to be very fascinating as it takes in such a long period of time and it did call the latest top in gold to within about four months or so. This chart also ties into my big picture analysis that is showing there is still plenty of room for gold to move lower over the coming months. All the best…Rambus

First I want to acknowledge how frustrating the markets have been over the last several months for most of you. There has been no clear cut trend in which one can just take a position and not get caught up in the chopping action the markets have been giving us. As I have said in the past the hardest part of trading is to get your initial position to stick before your sell/stop gets hit. If your a bear it’s two steps down and one step up and if your a bull it’s two steps forward and one step back. It’s that one step after you take your initial position that usually gets you if you don’t buy the exact high or low.

As of right now there is nothing broken in any of our portfolios as the consolidation patterns keep in building out. This is the frustration that most of you are feeling right now as there is no direction, one day up and the next day down. This is the how markets work. They will frustrate you until you can’t stand it anymore then you will sell out to save your sanity. Believe me there is nothing wrong with saving ones sanity as that is the most important feature for playing in the markets. The markets are hard enough to play when your sane but impossible if your emotions get in the way. I wish I had a magic wand I could wave to make it all better but I don’t and I don’t know anyone that does. So the game goes on until one side wins the battle and then we get a move we can actually hold onto for awhile.

Lets start with a daily chart for the Dow Jones that has been consolidation or topping since the first of the year. It has completed 5 reversal points so far making it a reversal pattern at this time. The only problem is the price action bouncing off the bottom rail that could be a 6th reversal point if the price reaches the top rail. At that point it would be a consolidation pattern if it was to break through the top rail of the rising wedge. As of this moment the rising wedge is a reversal pattern because it has completed 5 reversal points so that is what we have to go on until something changes.

This very long term monthly chart for the Dow shows it’s trading at the top blue rail of a huge expanding triangle that starts back in 2000. As you can see the price action is squeezing right into the apex of the top blue rail of the expanding triangle and the bottom rail of the rising wedge. This is either a great shorting opportunity or if the price action can break above the top rail of the massive blue expanding triangle, a great buy. The jury is still out on this one yet.

Below is a very long term chart for the Dow that goes all the way back to the 40’s. You can see the inverted roof pattern that formed during the big bear market of the 70’s. This chart does a good job of showing how an impulse move, on any time scale, plays out.  Note the secular bull market that started in the early 40’s and ran all the way up to 1966 where the secular bear market began. You can see how long it took to work off the bull market run, black rectangle, before the Dow was ready for the next major impulse move higher that would take it to the 2000 top where our current consolation pattern is forming. The million dollar question we have to ask ourselves is the blue expanding triangle finishing up with the 14 year consolidation pattern or is there still more work that needs to be done to work off the excesses from the previous secular bull market? Again you can see how critically important the price action is that is trading at the top blue rail of the 14 year consolidation pattern.

Below is a 5 year chart of the Dow that shows an important intermediate term  top was made in April of each year. Will this year be any different?

Lets now take a look at the Russel 2000 that is trading up to the top blue rail of its expanding rising wedge formation. As you can see there was a top in 2000, then seven years later another top in 2007 and now we are at the top rail seven years later in 2014. I don’t want to sound like a broken record but this area does look like a good place to try a short trade. As we know there are no guarantees. If we do see a correction I would expect the first line of support to come in around the previous tops at 865 or so.

Of all of the stock market indexes the SPX has the most bullish look to it as it has already broken out of its expanding flat top triangle. The only thing lacking to make this chart super bullish is there is no backtest yet. A backtest down to the 1550 area, the old highs, would be a great buying opportunity if the SPX does a backtest.

The monthly chart for the SPX shows its been trading in a rising wedge formation since the bear market low in 2009. There is also a bit of a negative divergence taking place similar to the 2000 and 2007 tops.

The quarterly chart for the SPX shows it has broken out of its expanding flat top triangle but no backtest so far. As you can see in the 70’s bear market the SPX did have a clean breakout and backtest before it started its secular bull market.

A lot of folks believe China is the cure all for just about everything out there. If China gets moving to the upside commodities will be soaring once again. China is supposed to be buying up all the available gold out there that should be bullish for the price of gold. As you can see on this chart below China has been in the doldrums since it put in its parabolic run in 2007. This is exactly how a stock looks after a parabolic blow off phase. After the initial decline from the parabolic top the SSEC had a counter trend rally back up to 3548 where it has been drifting lower for more than 5 years. There is nothing bullish about this chart.

Does gold share the same fate as the SSEC after its parabolic run?

The last chart for tonight is the long term look at silver that we’ve been following for sometime now. Part of the frustration you are feeling with silver is the major support rail its been testing that has a good chance to be a neckline of a major H&S top. Big important trendlines like that don’t give up easily. As you can see this month of May has cracked the neckline but not decisively yet. There is still a week and a half of trading yet before this monthly chart shows the closing price. This is either the best buying opportunity or the greatest short of a lifetime right here and now. You know how I’m positioned. All the best…Rambus

We’ve been focusing in on the shorter term charts for the precious metal complex for some time now which is important but we also need to keep a very close eye on the bigger picture as that over rides the shorter term charts. You really have to know the big picture and then work your way back to the shorter term time frames that help confirm what the long terms are saying. Unless your a very short term trader then the long term charts won’t impact your trades that much. By looking at the long term charts they can still give you some clues you can use to help make a decision on where one might look for important support or resistance zones that don’t show up on the minute charts. So for me looking at all the different time frames helps paint a much clearer picture that one can use to trade any time fame they choose. Perspective.

Lets start with a weekly chart of gold that shows the final rally phase into the 2011 all time high at 1920. From that all time high gold has been in a confirmed downtrend after breaking below the bottom rail of the blue 6 point rectangle consolidation. Please note the 6th reversal point on the 22 month blue rectangle at the top of the chart. That was the exact point that started the big impulse move low that took the price action from 1800 to the June bottom at 1175. That huge impulse leg down also took out the bottom rail if the 22 month rectangle in April of last year. That impulse move took about 11 months from start to finish about half the time it took to build the 22 month blue rectangle. There is one really important aspect to that 11 month impulse move down that is the basic principal of a tending market. If you follow every little squiggle from the 6th reversal point on the blue 22 month rectangle to where the impulse leg ended at 1175 you will see gold made a  lower low and lower high, at every minor low, during that 11 month decline. Folks this isn’t rocket science but it’s an important fundamental aspect of Chartology. As you can see from the June low made last year gold has been chopping out another consolidation pattern. You can see there is the beginning of the 4th reversal point that could be comparable to the 6th reversal point on that blue 22 month rectangle. There is still a lot of work to do but the potential is setting up that could lead to one last huge impulse  move lower before it’s all said and done. If the trendline on the RSI at the top of the chart breaks down that could very well be a strong signal that the next impulse move lower is getting underway. Nothing is definite yet but there are a lot of things to watch to help confirm the big picture that is so important to understand. When you have a game plan you want to see things unfold in a way that fits what what you are seeing. As long as things keep progressing the way they are supposed to don’t fight every little wiggle that will be sure to try and throw you off your game plan.

This next chart is the long term monthly chart that shows how important the 10 month ema has been on both sides of the gold move. On the way up it always held support until the 2008 crash. Then during the topping process in 2011 and 2012 is when it started to breakdown again. Sine the second high in 2012 it is back to now hold resistance, just the opposite during the bull market years when it held support. You can see last month gold spiked above the 10 month ema but quickly reversed and closed the month back below it. So far the month of May has tested it once at 1315 and has bounced off. The bear market has shown lower highs and lower lows  which is a downtrend. There is no way of getting around it, you have to have higher highs and higher lows to begin a trend reversal and until we see that the downtrend remains intact regardless of all the reasons in the world why gold should be putting in a bottom right here. At some point it will and we’ll see it happen in real time but that time is not yet here.

Below is another long term chart of gold I’ve been following through the years that shows all the beautiful chart patterns that formed during the bull market years. This chart shows how the secular bull market could stay intact if the price action doesn’t take out our latest consolidation pattern low, the big blue expanding falling wedge. This chart shows the price of gold could fall pretty low and still be in the confines of the big blue expanding falling wedge, as a consolidation pattern.

This last chart is for those that think gold didn’t have a parabolic rise off the 2001 low to the 2011 high. Again on the bull side of the chart you can see higher highs and higher lows and on the right of the chart you can see just the opposite lower highs and lower lows. Simple but very powerful.

Lets now take a look at silver that shows a similar look to gold but is in a weaker state. You can also see it topped out first in 2011 and has been creating lower highs and lower lows ever since. Note the top brown shaded support and resistance zone that has held support since it broke down in April of 2011. If you look below the top brown shaded support and resistance zone there isn’t a whole of support until silver reaches its old bottom made in 2008.

Below is a chart that is very similar to the gold chart I showed you above.

We’ve been following this next long term look at silver for six months or more that is showing us the big picture in a way that no one else is looking at. If you showed this chart to a goldbug he would shoot you on the spot and ask questions later. This chart is blasphemy of the highest degree if you can only look in one direction. The symmetry is absolutely beautiful from the two shoulders being of equal size and the neckline symmetry rail showing us exactly the height for the right shoulder. If this H&S top plays out as expected it will have a price objective down to the lower brown shaded support and resistance zone around the 2008 crash low. When you watch these big patterns play out in real time it seems like an eternity for things to play out. But since I posted this possibility over 6 months or so ago silver has been progressing along according to what I laid out with nothing to tell me this pattern is broken.

The last chart I would like to show you for silver it its own parabolic run similar to gold’s. Here I’m using fanlines that show support on the way down. Note how decisively fanline #1 was broken to the downside during that April 2011 massive breakout. Silver has been holding support since the June low made last year at flanline #2. If you look real close you can see silver is now breaking below fanline #2 ever so lightly but it is cracking. Depending where silver finds support once it lets go it could find support on fanline #3 around the 12,60 area.

I know how hard it is for most to follow the longer term charts but that’s where the really important information lies. Through the years this is where I have found the confidence to make the biggest return on my investments bar none. Over trading usually gets you into trouble even if you have had a good string of luck but eventually your luck runs out and you are left sitting on the sidelines. As I have stated so many times before , these types of setups don’t come around very often but when they do you have to be ready to take full advantage of the situation once it presents itself.

All the best…Rambus.

Before we look at some charts tonight I would like to follow up on a post Sir SA Viking did at the Chartology Forum today about not trading in the first 30 minutes of a new trading day. He is absolutely correct. If you’ve been trading in the markets for any length of time then you have heard the expression that the first 30 minutes of trading is for amateurs. The reason for this old adage is because a lot of amateurs will trade on the previous days price action and have to get in a trade no matter what. Many times you will see the smart money fade the open after the first half hour of trading trapping the new guys that just had to buy. The only time I will trade in the first half hour is when we have a nice profit and the price action is close to a price objective that was laid out previous.  I will usually try to sell in the first 15 minutes if possible.

I also want to talk about using sell/stops. I personally never use sell/stops as it shows the specialist, the market maker, where all the treasure is buried. They will then run the sell/stops, taking in that new inventory of stock, with the purpose of selling it higher. I’m between a rock and a hard spot using sell/stops for our members as I know many need to know where to exit if things go wrong even if it’s a fake out before the breakout. As I’m watching the market very close each day I personally don’t need them. I’ve stated this before that I may not elect to execute a sell/stop if it is hit because it’s for those that need it. If I do decide to execute a sell/stop I will always tell you for future reference.

If you remember our sell/stop was hit this week on our DUST trade by about .15 cents or so and then the price action reversed back up. That was a perfect example of running the sell/stops and then reversing the move once the stops were hit. I wish there was a better way to do this but it is what it is. It’s all part of the game.

Precious Metals

The first chart I would like to show you tonight is the one I posted today on the GDX. So far this downtrend has four separate chart patterns in it. The top is comprised of the blue 5pt bearish expanding rising wedge reversal pattern. The second pattern is the red bear flag. The third pattern is the red bearish rising wedge and the fourth and most important chart pattern is the potential blue bearish falling wedge which should be a halfway pattern to the downside.

This longer term daily chart for the GDX shows how small the bearish falling wedge is on the chart below, in red. As you know I’ve been looking at this possible 4th reversal point on the much bigger blue falling flag as the reversal point to get us back down to the bottom of the blue falling flag. The little red bearish falling wedge should get us down to the previous low at reversal point #3. At this moment this is our primary price objective. Keep in mind that I’m also looking at the blue falling flag as a halfway pattern. Note the blue bearish expanding rising wedge at the top of the chart and the fourth reversal point. That 4th reversal point marked the beginning of that big impulse move down to reversal point #1 on our blue falling flag. If we have just put in the 4th reversal point, in the blue falling flag, then we should see a similar move that matched the first leg down out of the 4 point  point bearish expanding rising wedge down to the 11.40 area or so. This is the potential huge reward I’m looking at right now. I can tell it’s not going to be easy as you are already finding out by this little consolidation area we’ve been in for several weeks now. The price objective down to the 11.40 area is not a pipe dream. This is how markets work. They build a top or bottom and then have an impulse move followed by a consolidation pattern. We’ve been in our latest consolidation pattern for 10 months so far as it’s correcting that big impulse move down from that 4th reversal point in the blue bearish expanding rising wedge at the top of the chart.

Lets now look at the daily chart for gold I’ve been showing you that shows how an uptrend and downtrend work. The blue arrows on the left side of the chart shows a beautiful uptrend where each minor low is higher than the previous low. Since the top was put, top red arrow, just the opposite has been happening. As you can see gold has been creating lower lows down to the current price action at the 1265 area. Gold has made three attempts to break below the 1265 area that would then confirm a new low which would also confirm the continuation of the downtrend channel. You can see how violent the price action is becoming between the upper and lower brown shaded support and resistance zones. The bulls and the bears are fighting it out for control of the trend. How long this battle goes on is anyone’s guess but the sideways trading range, rectangle, is trying to finish up its fourth reversal point that we have to see at a minimum to create a consolidation pattern. Now that we have more information we just need to follow the price action for more clues as to when a breakout may occur. It could happen tomorrow or next week or when it just good and ready to show its hand. There is no doubt we’ll be on top of it when its ready to move.

Big Cap Tech

I will be spending more time covering this sector and others in the General Markets as it appears
a clear trend is developing . As Most Members know , I have never met a Trend I didn’t like .

Let us turn our attention to a few big cap tech stocks, recent darlings that aren’t looking very hot anymore.

The first chart is a weekly look at AZMN that is showing a very well defined H&S top complete with a breakout and backtest.

EBAY has been chopping out an 11 point blue rectangle for well over a year now. You can see it had a symmetry false breakout from the bottom rail and then one through the top rail that may have been the exhaustion move where it finally ran out of gas. Remember an even number of reversal points equals a consolidation pattern and an odd number of reversal points equals a reversal pattern. As you can see EBAY is strongly testing the bottom rail right now. A solid break will create a very large top reversal pattern.

The daily chart for GOOGL shows us a double H&S top that isn’t one of the prettiest H&S tops I’ve ever seen but it’s making lower highs and lower lows which is creating a downtrend. It will be interesting to see how GOOGL deals with that huge gap, brown shaded area.

This long term weekly look at GOOGL shows how I’ve following this stock through the years. What is the most important thing to understand is where the H&S top, I showed you on the daily chart above, has formed on the weekly chart below. If there was ever a place to look for a H&S top reversal pattern this chart shows that place in spades.

NFLX has been a high flyer but it to looks like it’s building out a H&S topping pattern. Note the beautiful H&S top that was made in 2011 and the decline that followed.

The last time I posted this chart for PCLN was when it was breaking out from the H&S consolidation pattern back at the beginning of 2013. You never know what kind of price rise you’ll get only that it should be a good one when a stock breaks out of a fairly large consolidation pattern. This chart also shows you a perfect example of how support and resistance works. Notice the eight point blue rectangle that formed back in 2011. Once the price action broke above the top blue rail it then reversed its role from, what had been resistance to then support as shown by the double headed H&S consolidation pattern. That is perfect Chartology 101.

I think some of these charts above are showing you why the NDX 100 is trading way below the Dow and SPX. These big guys led on the way up and are now going to lead on the way down. There are many more examples I could show you but I think these big cap tech stocks paints a pretty good picture of what is going on below the surface.

This is the why behind our recent addition of SQQQ , the 3X Bear Big Cap Tech ETF to our Model Portfolio

Stay Tuned

All the best…Rambus