DUST Trade Setup…

Below is the daily chart for the GDM we’ve been following for sometime now which is showing the potential trading range the GDM has been in since the first reversal point was put in back in late July of this year. Today the GDM spiked above the top rail of the potential rectangle consolidation pattern and has quickly reversed back down inside the rectangle. Today could very well show a false breakout to the upside, red circle, that matches the false breakout to the downside in September bottom red circle. I call these, false symmetry breakouts as they are the same height.

gdm day r3ctanle

This next daily chart for the GDM shows the top and bottom brown shaded support and resistance zones. Today the GDX hit the top of the upper S&R zone at 455. The 455 line is taken from the low made last November which started the big triangle / H&S consolidation patterns which broke down in June of this year and has led to our most recent area of consolidation which is looking like a rectangle at this point.


This daily chart for the GDM shows the BB bands which the GDM spike above this morning and the fib retrace which so far has held resistance between the 38% and 50% of the last move down as shown by the red arrows.

gdm bb fib

I’ve shown you this potential ping pong move on the monthly chart for the GDM which is between the 2008 crash low and the previous low around the 455 area. It’s basically caught between support and resistance.

gdm monthly

Based on the charts above I’m going to take an initial position in DUST and buy 1500 shares at the market at 14.36 using a closing price above 463 on the GDM chart as my sell/stop. This trade is based on the GDM chart and not the DUST chart.


Weekend Report…Precious Metals: a Critical Week Ahead

Lets get right to the charts today as there is so much to cover. Starting with the daily gold chart you can see the blue triangle pattern we’ve been watching now for several weeks or so. Last Thursday gold closed right on the bottom rail which I knew was an inflection point where it could go either way. When I went to bed Thursday night I knew Friday was going to be either a very good day or a very bad day depending on what gold did in the morning. As you can see on the chart below gold dipped slightly below the bottom blue rail and then reversed direction to the upside. That last touch of the bottom blue rail confirmed the 4th reversal point was complete. The rally on Friday is now the beginning of the 5th reversal point which will make the blue triangle a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern if it breaks out above the top blue rail. As I have stated many times an even number of reversal points creates a consolidation pattern and an odd number of reversal point makes a reversal pattern. The fifth reversal point will be completed if the top blue rail gets hit. That will be another inflection point where gold can breakout and continue to rally or reverse back down creating the 6th reversal point. It looks like the 1152 area will be the place to watch as the apex of the much bigger black triangle consolidation pattern and the top rail of the blue triangle come together. If gold breaks out above the top rail of the blue triangle the measured move would be up to the 1201 area as shown by the blue arrows. The bottom line is gold is still chopping around in the blue triangle which is an indecision area where the bulls and the bears are fighting it out for dominance. Keep in mind this is only a battle within the bear market war.

gold day trinle

Below is another daily chart that shows if gold does indeed takes out the top rail of the blue triangle, that has a price objective up to the 1200 area, it’s possible that gold may form a bigger bear flag which would still be bearish. Note the brown shaded support and resistance zone that is just overhead between 1160 and 1175 that gold will have to take out to reach the 1200 area. I know there are a lot of folks getting bullish on gold right now. If and that’s a big IF, if gold can rally straight up slicing right through the brown shaded S&R zone and close somewhere in the vicinity of the previous highs made at 1225 that would be showing considerable strength and would be the first step in forming a possible inverse H&S bottom. At this point that is the most unlikely scenario but one to watch.

gold ber flag

Below is a 2 1/2 year daily line chart for gold which shows the big picture with the bearish falling wedge with the blue triangle forming right on the bottom black rail. The last pattern that formed inside the big falling wedge was a H&S consolidation pattern that led to the initial breakout of the black falling wedge. Gold has backtested the neckline twice so far from below at the 1155 area which so far has held resistance.

gold 2 year falling wedge

This weekly linear scale chart we’ve been following for a very long time now which shows the parallel downtrend channel gold has been in since topping out four years ago in 2011. For me this is the most important chart to keep a close eye on. I’ve made one slight adjustment on this chart and that is to the bottom rail of the blue two plus year bearish falling wedge.  The reason I’ve done that is because of the two smaller red consolidation patterns that have formed just below the top rail of the black parallel downtrend channel. By making the bottom rail of the 2 plus year consolidation pattern horizontal you can see how the two small red consolidation patterns form one above and our current red triangle is forming just below that important bottom rail of the blue  now six point descending triangle at 1155 or so. I will say it again so please don’t get mad at me. If you see a smaller consolidation pattern form just above, just below, right on top or one on top and one below an important trendline that is usually a bearish setup in this case. If gold was in a bull market it would be a bullish setup. So by making the bottom rail of the large blue falling wedge horizontal we still have 6 reversal points with the bottom rail being a little sloppy which can happen with very large patterns. If you study the area between the two small red consolidation patterns you will see how the high in our current red triangle backtested the bottom blue rail of the flat bottom triangle or descending triangle, at 1175, which is by nature a bearish pattern because of the lower highs at each reversal point. The small red triangle is the same triangle I showed you on the first daily chart for gold. To say this is critical resistance at 1155 or so is an understatement.

triangle parrlelelo 333333333333333333

Below is a close up look at the four year parallel downtrend for gold which shows the blue flat bottom triangle consolidation pattern as a halfway pattern to the downside as shown by the blue arrows. The price objective still remains the same using the impulse method as shown by the blue arrows. Blue arrows #1 measures the first impulse move down and the blue arrows with the number #2 measures the second impulse move down which is the 2008 crash low at 685. Using the horizontal bottom rail now for the big blue consolidation pattern the breakout to breakout method gives us a higher price objective up to the 828 area. The 65 week moving average now comes in at 1200.

a gold close up

This next chart is a very long term monthly chart for gold which I use the 10 month ema to look for support and resistance. As you can see it did a beautiful job of nailing the bottoms during the bull market years except for the 2008 crash. It has done a pretty good job during our bear market at showing us resistance. There are just two months where the price action closed above the 10 month ema and that was during the formation of the blue triangle consolidation pattern. If you look real close you can see that the highs in August and September touched the 10 month ema and declined. The 10 month ema now comes in at 1160 which is now below the bottom rail of the blue triangle.

gold monthl6 10 month ma

Below is a long term weekly log scale chart for gold which shows how the bull market that began in 2000 could still be intact if the big four year bullish expanding falling wedge plays out. The low would be where ever the bottom black rail is hit which right now is around 800 but its dropping so the longer it takes the lower the ultimate price objective. Note the smaller black bullish expanding falling wedge which created the consolidation area for the 2008 crash low. It had six complete reversal points before it was finished developing. Note the breakout and backtest which took roughly 12 weeks to complete before the final leg up to the all time high began in earnest. Also note that a six point red triangle that formed as part of the breaking out and backtesting process on top of the all important top rail of the bullish black expanding falling wedge. Our current small red triangle is forming just below the all important bottom rail of the two plus years  blue flat bottom triangle consolidation pattern. If you look at the first chart of this post you will see a closeup view of the small triangle consolidation pattern that is possibly working on its sixth reversal point if the top rail holds resistance.

gold 3333 black expanding falline wedge

Now lets take a look at a daily chart for silver which shows the previous consolidation pattern was a blue four point triangle. So far silver has backtested the bottom blue rail several different times and it maybe getting ready to do it again. A backtest would come in around the 15.75 area. I’ve also been showing this area as a H&S consolidation pattern. The main thing to focus in on is the bottom rail as that is our line in the sand whether it’s a neckline or the bottom rail of a triangle consolidation pattern. I could make a case that the area trading below the bottom rail of the blue triangle could be an inverse H&S bottom. If that is the case then silver will have to break above the bottom rail of the blue triangle. Until that happens, above the bottom rail is positive and below is negative.


The next chart for silver is a daily line chart that shows the blue triangle and the H&S consolidation pattern that has formed just below the bottom rail with a backtest price objective up to 15.75 or so.


Below is a long term weekly chart for silver which shows us it too has a parallel downtrend channel that has formed since it put in its bull market high in April of 2011. This chart I’m showing our latest consolidation pattern as the H&S consolidation pattern that has formed just below the bottom rail of the previous blue triangle. This chart has classic Chartology written all over it. You can see the 2008 crash low ended up being just the head of a big H&S consolidation pattern. Note the little red triangle that formed just below the neckline which led to the vertical move up into its bull market top at 50 or so. The little red expanding triangle, that formed right in the middle of that huge impulse move up, signaled the halfway point which measured up to 50.29.  The big H&S consolidation pattern measured up to 45.57 which gave me a nice target to look for. Compare how much easier the price action was to trade during the bull market compared to our current bear market. The rally out of the 2008 crash low was punctuated by several small consolidation patterns whereas the bear market has consisted of big consolidation patterns that took a long time to show their hand. When I look at this weekly chart it’s very hard to find anything bullish. The very first thing I would need to see is for silver to trade above the neckline at 15.75 and then above the top rail of the downtrend channel. If silver can do that I will have no problem at all being bullish again like I was during the bull market years.

silver weekly parallel down trend channel

The last chart we’ll look at for silver is the long term monthly look that shows a nice symmetrical H&S top as shown by the neckline symmetry rail. The price objective for that massive H&S top is down to the brown shaded S&R zone at the bottom of the chart. I know it seems impossible but that’s what the Chartology is strongly suggesting. What will be the fundamental reason for that is anybodies guess. We’ll know well after the fact why silver and the rest of the precious metals complex were so weak but right now all I can show you is the charts that are telling us this sector is in very bad shape even after four years of a bear market.

silver monthly h&s top

Lets look at one last chart for tonight which will be the weekly look at Platinum. It tends to march to its own drummer but its considered a precious metal along with an industrial metal similar to silver. Like almost all commodities it topped out in 2011 and then formed its first consolidation pattern which is the black three year rectangle. After breaking out of the big black rectangle Platinum formed a smaller blue rectangle just below the bottom rail of the big rectangle. Next Platinum formed a small red triangle just below the bottom rail of the small blue rectangle. Its taken alot of chopping around to gain ground to the downside but as you can see last weeks bar was pretty long as it broke to multi year lows. It appears to be reversing symmetry to the downside. How it went up in the bull market years is how its coming back down in the bear market years.

This is going to be a very interesting week for the precious metals complex as a lot of important areas of resistance are getting close to being tested. How this testing goes will tell us a lot of how strong the PM bulls are at this time. If they’re are for real then they will show us by taking out some of the overhead resistance. Until they can do that I have to respect the bear market that has been in place for well over four years now. All the best…Rambus





SLV Update…

Below is the long term daily chart we’ve been following for SLV which shows the brown shaded S&R zone or neckline at the14.80 area as the backtest  zone. Today’s price action also left a gap on the opening which most likely get filled as some point.

slv day 1

The weekly chart for SLV shows the H&S consolidation pattern forming just below the bottom rail of the blue triangle consolidation pattern. The 50 week ma now comes in at 15.37 which has done a good job of holding resistance over the last several years.

slv weekly

The long term monthly chart for SLV shows the small neckline starting its fourth month of holding resistance after the price action broke through it. So far the neckline has done its job reversing its role from what had been support to now resistance. A break above the 14.80 resistance line would be a feather in the bulls cap. Again another critical area to watch.

slv monthly



Hi Catherine. Nice talking to you again.

How I got the handle Rambus.

Actually Rambus was a chip stock I traded back in the 1990’s tech bubble. There were a lot of new technology stocks that were being born back then such as Amazon, E Bay and Cisco just to name a few. Rambus was one of the most volatile stocks at that time and  would go up and split only to go up and split again. They were in the semi conductor area that was really hot and supposedly had a patent on a particular chip that was going to make them a fortune.

The last time I traded Rambus was during the first part of 2000 when the tech bubble was peaking out. It was over $200 a share as were many tech stocks back then. The last time it split was a four for one stock split which meant I now had four times as many shares as before. It started trading in the low 50’s but what happened next was what every trader dreams of.

Within the next two months Rambus was already trading back up to about the 135 area when I called my broker telling him to put a sell/stop in at 123 just in case it was running out of gas. I also watching a chart on the COMPQ that was suggesting that it was time for a pause at a minimum or maybe even a top of some kind may start forming. A couple of weeks later my sell/stop was hit at 123 and the rest they say is history.

That was a life changing trade for me that basically let me retire in my late forties. I still remember asking my wife if she was ready to build our dream house on our forty acres and she said, I’m paraphrasing here, “are you kidding me?” I said “nope.” Six months later we moved into our brand new house complete with all new furnishings. That is the reason I use Rambus as my handle as it was very good to me.

Starting Rambus Chartology.

After trading the greatest bull market in history it was hard finding new stocks to trade as most of the tech stocks crashed and burned during the ensuing bear market. I remember it was in the spring of 2002 when I stumbled upon the bull market in the precious metals complex. Up to that point I didn’t know a junior precious metals stock from a big cap precious metals stock as they were so far off my radar screen. One day I came across a long term weekly chart for gold which was showing a big and beautiful inverse H&S bottom forming which got my attention.

From that point on I started studying and reading everything I could on the precious metals complex. I learned there were many juniors that could have big moves when the time was right which was right up my alley. I had found a new bull market to trade.

Back in 2006 I found a free primary gold website where posters were expressing their ideas on gold, silver and the precious metals stocks. I followed their posts for a couple of months before I decided to post my first chart which I still remember was a very long term monthly chart for silver which was very bullish at the time.

I got a few comments and started posting fairly regularly. I met a poster there by the handle of Fullgoldcrown who was probably the biggest goldbug I had ever know up to that point. He would often compliment my charts because they were always very bullish on the precious metals sector so we formed an online friendship.

As that website was a gold only website you couldn’t post charts on the stock markets or anything else if it didn’t pertain to the precious metals complex. If you did post on something other than the PM complex you would find your post deleted.

About 25 or 30 members decided to go out on their own and start a free-gold website called Goldtent / Posters Paradise. This new free website was much more open to the stock markets and other techniques of trading. They asked me if I would like to join and I said yes because I was always open to new ideas of trading as there are many different methods to trade the markets.

Everything was good until I started noticing a potential H&S top that was forming on the HUI back in 2007. Keep in mind the bull market in the precious metals complex was going full throttle to the upside at that time. When I started posting the possibility of a H&S top forming I started getting a lot of negative feedback to put in lightly.

Fullgoldcrown who I considered my friend could not believe I would post something negative about gold and silver. So at that point I decided to just back off and do just an occasional post because I knew most of the members were staunch goldbugs and they didn’t want to hear what the charts maybe showing.

As it turned out that H&S top did play out and the HUI dropped form 520 to 150 in a matter of about five months. The precious metals stocks crashed beyond anyone’s comprehension when it was all said and done. From that point I just kept to myself and pretty much just did my own thing.

A couple of times Fullgoldcrown would send me an email asking if I would be interested in starting a new website and I politely declined because I knew it would take 110% of my time and I was happy just the way things were.

Then in 2011 my father passed away unexpectedly and I missed our conversations and discussions we had on the stock markets and the economy. Even tho we rarely agreed on the markets I missed having some one to really talk about where the stock markets might go or what shape the economy was in.

So in July of 2011 I emailed Fullgoldcrown to see if his offer still stood on wanting to start a new website. He said “yes lets do this.” He said he knew a computer wizard named Todd that could build the website from scratch but he needed a couple of months to work on the design. In October of 2011 Rambus Chartology was born. We had no expectations on what would happen when we opened the door but here its four years later and our door is still open.

What do we offer at Rambus Chartology.

If you’re interested in charts we have a ton of charts ranging from the stock markets to the precious metals complex, currencies or just about anything that can be charted we have it. We also have a forum where you can post your ideas on any market or trading discipline that you use. Everyone is shown respect even if you’re a novice which many of our members are.

We also have many members that are very good at trading the markets and post their views at the forum. We have folks that are into cycles, Elliot Wave Gann theory and just about any trading discipline you can think of. There are members from all walks of life and from all over the world which I didn’t expect when we opened up our website at Rambus Chartology. The world wide web has really opened up the door for the little guy.

We have a five day free trial period where you can come in and look around and decide for yourself if our website suits your needs.

Fullgoldcrown came up with a motto that reads, “give a man a chart and he may prosper for a day, but teach him to chart and he will prosper for a lifetime.”

Behind the scenes we have Fullgoldcrown who is our public relations guy that will help you get on the site if you’re having problems, set you up with a password or anything else if you need help.

Todd is our computer wizard that built our website from scratch writing his own codes. He’s one of those guys that you don’t hear much about but you know he’s working behind the scenes taking care of business.

How did I learn technical analysis.

I first became interested in the stock market way back in 1974 when I returned home from overseas. My father who grew up during the great depression was always very conservative with his money and had opened up a trading account with Merill Lynch. I was shocked to say the least. While I was overseas there was the infamous oil embargo that I missed.

My father using basically a fundamental approach to the stock market bought American Motors because he thought everyone was going to buy smaller cars based on the price of oil. I remember he bought American Motors around 12 or 13 dollars a share. From the point at which he bought American Motors the stock just kept going down lower and lower until he lost over half of his investment. American Motors eventually went bankrupt I believe and the stock never got back up to where my father originally bought in. That was his one and only time he ever invested in the stock market.

By all rights what happened to my father should have steered me away from the stock markets but it had just the opposite affect on me. I could see way back then the potential the markets could have on someone either good or bad.

I knew  absolutely nothing about the markets so I began the education phase of learning as much as I could on how the stock markets worked. I bought my first book on the stock market and the authors trading system was based on watching the ticker tape looking for big blocks of shares that would show him if a stock was under accumulation or distribution. That’s the way most of the short term traders did it back then, watching the ticker tape.

I didn’t really get much out of his trading system but his book had some charts in it that really fascinated me. I began to look for books with charts in them and I stumbled across a book by Edwards & McGee on Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. For me personally that book just made sense.

Back in those days charts were very hard to come by so I decided to start making my own charts. I was one of those guys with a sheet of graph paper, a pencil and a ruler.  I would put five bars to a square which would equal one weeks worth of price action. I charted 100 stocks a day using the quotes from the Wall Street Journal. It took me about an hour and a half a day to chart those 100 stocks. It was labor intensive compared to what we have now.

When the 1990’s arrived so did alot of different technologies and especially  charting services. Technology really opened up the door for the little guy. Prices were no longer delayed by 20 minutes. Real time quotes became a reality and they also stopped using fraction and went to decimals.

The very first charting service I subscribed to I had to have a six foot satellite dish to get real time quotes and charts. My computer was running on DOS back then which seems like an eternity ago.

With that satellite dish I could now get monthly, weekly, daily and minute charts with one click of a button. I thought I had died and gone to heaven. That was a real breakthrough in charting for me. I could start looking for all the different chart patterns, on different time frames, that I had been studying for so many years in what seemed like slow motion compared to my new 1990’s high tech satellite dish. From that point on charting really took off for me and I couldn’t think of any other trading discipline I wanted to learn and understand more than looking for patterns on a chart.

The indicators.

First and foremost I look for chart patterns. When I think I may have found something that looks promising I will look at just a handful of indicators such as the RSI, MACD and stochastics just to give me a feel if the stock maybe overbought or oversold. Using too many different indicators can get a bit confusing and cloud ones thinking. Most technicians generally have their own set of favorite indicators they like to use based on how they interpret the markets. It’s really a personal thing and what you get comfortable with.

I also like to look at several different moving averages as they can tell you alot about a trend. The 20 day ema and the 50 day ema are my two favorite moving averages to look at from a short to intermediate term perspective. Many times when they cross they will give you a buy or sell signal.

On the weekly charts the 30 week ema does a good job of showing you the intermediate to longer term trend. Then there is the old standby, 200 day moving average, which shows the very long term trend for a bull or bear market. There is only one rule when it comes to the markets and that is there are no rules. The sooner one learns this rule the better off they’ll be.

The precious metals complex.




Rambus Chartology Website Update

First.. Thank you all for your patience , understanding and messages of support  ..We are now back to Subscriber Only  View of Rambus Posts . Shortly we will have a new secure email alert for Rambus Posts which will be set up for all subscribers automatically . Email… gmag@live.ca …. if you wish to be taken off this feature .

PASSWORDS : Please change your password upon logging in for the first time . To do so click on “My Account” on the right…then click on “generate password”… a long auto generated password will appear….if you wish to use this password copy it and email it to yourself…then click on “Update Profile” on the bottom left .  OR  Choose your own new password ..(.preferably a strong one with numbers letters and symbols) by erasing the auto password and typing in your choice..then click “Update Profile”

FORUM : The Chartology Forum is still under construction . ETA > this weekend or next. For now go to Goldtent      www.goldtadise.com    (for some who don’t have access to goldtent from their location…use a proxy server…… https://www.proxyserver.com/  )

Archives and Sidebar and more will be added back in the near future .


LABU Trade Setup…

LABU reached my price objective yesterday at 16.11. This is an area where we can expect to see a reversal or consolidation pattern to begin forming. I’m going to buy 1000 shares at the market at 17.16 with the sell/stop at 14.89 just below today’s low. As of today I’m just expecting a relief rally of some kind to one of the fib retracements.

labu bu 2

HUI & GLD Combo Chart…

Below is the combo chart we’ve been following very closely that has the HUI on top and GLD on the bottom. This charts shows the big 2 plus year consolidation patterns for each stock. On the left side of the chart you can see how they both began building out their big consolidation patterns with a big gap down in April of 2013. Then they both broke below their respective bottom rails in July of this year also with a huge breakout gap. Since the big breakout in July of this year they both have been forming smaller consolidation patterns at their breakout points. As the HUI has been weaker than GLD it’s forming a small blue bearish falling wedge just below the bottom rail of its 2 plus year consolidation pattern. GLD on the other hand has been stronger and is forming a blue triangle consolidation pattern right on its bottom trendline of its 2 plus year consolidation pattern. They’re both working on their fourth reversal point within their small blue consolidation patterns. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see them both break below their bottom blue rails on the same day which will be confirmation that the next impulse move down is truly beginning. It has been a long time coming but we’re ever so close.


SPX Update…

Below is the daily chart for the SPX we looked at last week that is showing the potential H&S top. What I’m most interested in is how the price action inter acts with the possible neckline around the 1870 to 1875 area. If the neckline is valid we could see an initial bounce followed by a break below the neckline or we could see a gap below the neckline without any bounce. The potential neckline is the most important trendline on this chart right now.