To View any post  on a separate page click on  the Title of the post .

To Return to the main page after reading the post click on “Rambus Chartology for Subscribers” at the Top…

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FOR NEW MEMBERS WHO WANT TO KNOW ABOUT RAMBUS TRADING

Rambus Has several portfolios Listed on the Sidebar. They are updated  ..some regularly and some less so.However  If they are on the sidebar the trade is Active.

1…The Kamikazi Portfolio ( 2X Leveraged Positions on the Precious Metals Complex)

Before considering these trades, read the Post “Kamikazi Traders Report Here First”

2….The General Market Leveraged Portfolio .Leveraged 3X ETFs in many US Market Sectors.

3…Precious Metals Stock Trades

To View the present positions in Each of these Portfolios scroll down the sidebar

and you will see the 3 Headings

Click on the Stocks under these Headings to see the History of the Trade ….and Positions.

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One More Important Post to Explain Rambus Trading Style and Rationale (must be logged in to the Chartology Forum to read this)

http://forum.rambus1.com/?p=45911

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Now is a good time to review the many evolving features of the site :

1..Search Feature

….Just type in a Stock Symbol or word in the Search Box on the Top Bar (beside your “handle”)
….a list of all the pertinent posts will appear

2..Automatic E mail notification of a Rambus Post

….Near the Top of the right sidebar
….click on the Blue “Profile” Button
…..under “Notification Settings” choose your format (most prefer html)
…..under “Subscribed Categories” check off “Select All”

….Now you will immediately know when a new Update is Posted !

3..SIDEBAR CATEGORIES :

…HIGHLIGHT CHARTS…Important Posts to keep an eye on

…LAST 100….The last 100 posts on the site in chronological order
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…SITE INFORMATION (Includes symbols used in Rambus Charts and other general info)
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…MEMBERS FORUM (Requires separate log in…same ID and Password as the main site)

…Click on the “Forum Protocol” to see how to use the site and features

http://forum.rambus1.com/?p=27206
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…START HERE (GET AQUAINTED TO WHO WE ARE AND HOW WE HAPPENED AS WELL AS WHAT WE ARE ABOUT)
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REVERSE SYMMETRY TRILOGY
Rambus work showing how markets often go down just the way they went up
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THE WIZARD OF RAMBUS : Rambus greatest Hits over the years and interesting calls
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…TIMELESS TUTORIALS…HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READER FOR SERIOUS STUDENTS
Chartology 101 tidbits…go Here to learn how to apply Chartology for your own uses
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…BIG PICTURE……….Long Term Charts
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PM SITE LINKS…reciprocation PM sites
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OH and remember you click then click again ..on any chart and it will Grow for better visability

Any comments or questions with respect to these features please email me at

gmag@live.ca

Enjoy

Fullgoldcrown (Gary)

for

Audept (Todd) and

Rambus (Dave)

Tonight is a good time to look what has been happening this week in regards to the risk on trades and  the precious metals complex. Lets start with the US dollar that is still chopping in a fairly tight trading range. Its already had 2 false breakouts to the downside, blue dashed rails, and is currently attempting to touch the top blue rail. The top blue rail price comes in around 80.40 which should be critical resistance. The other scenario I see could be that the US dollar is putting in a 3 point double bottom reversal pattern. The top blue rail is most important right now. If the dollar fails at point #4 and starts to decline the the bear flag is the most likely pattern. On the other hand if the dollar breaks above the top blue rail that will change the game entirely as that would confirm a double bottom is in place. So we wait and watch the price action for further developments. Note the 50 dma has crossed below the 200 dma offering a sell signal.

Oil looks like it has put in a H&S top which isn’t good for the risk on trade. The head portion is an unbalanced double top. The breakout occurred yesterday with some follow through today. Watch the backtest to the neckline at 88 for confirmation of the breakout.

The gasoline chart also has a H&S top in place.

Next lets look at the CCI commodities index that appears to be breaking out to the downside from a 5 point triangle reversal pattern today.

KOL is a coal etf that shows a huge H&S top pattern in place. Notice how the price action, on the backtest has failed for almost 6 months now. It really needs to close above the neckline to negate the H&S top pattern.

Lets now look at a couple of precious metals that don’t get a whole lot of attention but are important to follow for the overall big picture. Up until yesterday  we could only speculate if PAL’s H&S top was a valid pattern.

Platinum has a double top in place now.

Gold has a H&S top in place that broke to the downside on Monday. I have to be perfectly frank right here. The placement of the recent H&S top, at the top rail of the big rectangle, is not a good sign. Gold has now completed it’s 5th reversal point which now throws it back into a rectangle reversal pattern for the time being. Gold is currently embarking on it’s 6th reversal point which is an even number if it touches the bottom rail. That would put this big rectangle into a consolidation pattern to the downside. All is not lost yet. Alot of times when you have a nice symmetrical rectangle like gold is showing, the last reversal point will come in at the center of the rectangle, blue dashed horizontal rail, at 1660. The H&S top has a price objective down to 1660 so we have to keep an open mind in here.

Lets take a look at the 60 minute chart of the HUI that shows it breaking below the horizontal rail today. We are now entering the pain area I’ve been telling you about. We now have a  lower low in place. Today’s price action stopped right on the parallel trendline made off the top rail. Now 487 becomes key resistance that needs to be overcome for the HUI to move higher.

The next chart is a daily look that shows a potential 5 point bearish falling wedge. I’ve tweaked it just a tad to get the 5 reversal points. Today could be a breakout day. I want to keep everything in perspective right here. You can see the brown shaded area that has done a good job of showing support and resistance. Below its resistance and above its support. Its critical that the HUI stays above the 460 area. That area is our line in the sand. As long as the HUI stays above the brown shaded area we will hold our model portfolio stocks. We were lucky enough to buy most of the portfolio stocks below the brown shaded area that gives us a little more leeway. For the investors that bought above the brown shaded area the pain is getting stronger as each day passes.

This next weekly chart really puts the 460 number into perspective. As you can see the support and resistance rail has done a masterful job of showing support and resistance going all the way back to the 2008 H&S top.

I want to leave you tonight with two big long term patterns for the HUI. One is bearish and one is bullish. Keep in mind neither one is complete yet. If you’ve followed my work over the years you know I can change direction if the charts are telling me to. You may recall I was pretty bearish when the HUI broke below the neckline which was the right call. But as soon as things started to turn around I didn’t waste anytime getting back to the long side. Now we are approaching another critical area that will tell us which side of the market to be on.

The bearish chart I want to show you is a potential very large H&S top. I’ve added a neckline symmetry rail that is a parallel neckline taken off the left shoulder top. This can often times give you a place to look for a right shoulder high if indeed a H&S pattern is forming. As you can see the HUI has started to reverse right at the neckline symmetry rail at the right shoulder top. This chart also shows you why the 460 double bottom hump is so critical to hold.

The last chart I want to leave you with is a bullish look that could have big implication going forward if it plays out. This chart pattern is a bullish rising wedge halfway pattern to the upside. Again you can see how important the 460 area is as shown by the support and resistance rail. If the HUI can find support there it will be on its way to the top blue rail. A break of the top blue rail will send the precious metals stocks into orbit.

So there you have it. The 460 area is the most important line in the sand for the HUI. Everything basically hinges on what happens there. If it can hold then we should see much higher prices. I think we will initially see a bounce off the 460 rail. From there we will just have to see how it trades and then act accordingly. I’m sorry for the late post but there was alot to cover tonight. All the best …Rambus

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EDITOR’S NOTE :
Rambus Chartology is Primarily a Goldbug TA Site where you can watch Rambus follow the markets on a daily basis and learn a great deal of Hands on Chartology from Rambus Tutorials and Question and Answeres .
Most Members are Staunch Goldbugs who have seen Rambus in action from the 2007 to 2008 period at www.goldtent.org and now Here at Rambus Chartology since early 2012 .
To review his Work and incredible calls from the 2007-2008 period click on the top right sidebar in the “Wizard of Rambus” ….”What If !!” Post
To Follow Rambus Unique Unbiased Chart Work and participate in a Chartology Form with questions and answeres and learn the Art and Science and Mindset of a Pro Trader please Join us by subscribing monthly for $29.99 at
www.rambus1.com
We have many subscribers from all over the world who are glad they did as they enjoy the many daily updates and commentaries provided at this exciting new site
As you will see Rambus (Dave) has prepared us for this difficult period by being one of the only ones to see and warn about the incredibly debilitating PM smackdown as early as Jan 2 2012 …click on the” HUI Diamond in the Rough” Post in the “Wizard of Rambus” top right
More Recently Rambus called a Bottom in HUI in this post…and has had subscribers on board for a Powerful Run to the Upside
http://rambus1.com/?p=5651
BUT
What is he seeing Now ?
You will find Rambus to be a calm humble down home country tutor with an incredible repitoir of all the TA based protocols tempered with his own one of a kind style…simply put…He wants to keep his subscribers on the right side of these crazy volitile and downright dangerous markets
See you at the Rambus Chartology

www.rambus1.com

Below is a daily chart for gold that is showing a small H&S top pattern that I recognized last night after going over many charts for gold. This pattern is forming just under the top horizontal rail of the big rectangle. I was looking for a small consolidation pattern just under the top rail but it now looks like a H&S top is in place. This H&S top has a price objective down to the 1660 area that is the center of the rectangle. Yesterday’s price action was the tell by the way gold backtested the neckline from below and then sold off. This is the reason we sold our Kamikaze trades this morning. We also had some nice profits that I didn’t want to see evaporate away if gold does trade down the the 1660 area.  Raising some cash in here looks like the prudent thing to do for the Kamikaze trades.

Just a quick update that shows GLD approaching the bottom rail of the downtrend channel and the 38% fib retrace. The 300 dma comes in at 163.12.

Just a quick update on the UUP 60 minute chart that broke below the bottom rail of the bear flag this morning. Its possible we could get a backtest to the underside of the bottom rail at 21.75.

Daily chart.

Weekly chart.

In this weekend report I want to get everyone up to speed on the US dollar and gold.This week will mark the start of the 6th week of consolidation time for the precious metals complex. We are now in the timing band if these little consolidation patterns are going to be little flag type patterns. These type of patterns generally last between 3 to 6 weeks before they are complete and produce a move of similar magnitude that led up into these patterns. These patterns will look like they formed in the middle of the impulse leg when the move is completed.

The most important chart we have to look at first is the UUP chart which is the US dollar etf. On the daily chart below you can see the possible bear flag that is equal in time to alot of the precious metals stocks small consolidation patterns. A breakout of the bottom red rail will complete the consolidation period and set the stage for the second leg higher for basically the risk on trades including the stock markets. Its still unknown how much longer the UUP will chop around within the boundaries of it’s bear flag but at some point the pattern will be complete and the move to risk on trades will begin in earnest.

The weekly look shows the small red 5 week old bear flag still building out below the 6 point blue bearish rising wedge.

The next chart is a combo chart with the US dollar on top and gold on the bottom. The purple dashed vertical line shows how the US dollar and gold have been trading in the opposite direction since the dollar topped out above 84. You can see if the dollar breaks down below it’s red bear flag that will propel gold up and over the critical resistance rail at 1800 and complete the 5 point rectangle reversal pattern I’ve been showing for sometime now.

The last chart I would like to show you is the long term look at the US dollar that shows the blue downtrend channel inside the much bigger long term black downtrend channel. The green circle shows what now looks like a false breakout above the top blue trendline. As you can see the dollar is now trading back below the top blue rail for the last month and a half now. Its not the prettiest rectangle I’ve ever seen but I’m going to label it as a rectangle halfway pattern as measured by the red arrows. If in fact the red rectangle ends up being a halfway pattern the price objective would come in around the 52 area three or four years from now.

Lets now take a look at a daily chart of gold that I showed you several weeks ago with an uptrend channel and a possible horizontal trading range between 1740 and 1800. It looks like gold wants to test the 1740 bottom rail again which is about 15 points lower from Fridays close. I really wouldn’t like to see gold trade much below the 1720 area that was a previous low made on the way up. In a strong uptrend we shouldn’t see a lower low form.

Below is a longer term daily look at gold that takes in the big completed rectangle. So far the resistance at 1800 was to be expected on the last hit as everyone knew this was a resistance zone. The thing I’m would really like to see is a small consolidation pattern form right where it is now to build up the energy to finally takeout the top rail at 1800. So far so good.

This last chart for gold is a weekly chart that I showed you many time in the past. I call this chart my 2008 uptrend channel chart as its the best look at the huge impulse leg up off the 2008 bottom. First I want to focus your attention to the bottom black rail of the uptrend channel. If you recall when gold broke that bottom rail of the uptrend channel, to the downside, that was one of the reason I had to put the model portfolio into cash. That was also about the time the HUI was also breaking below its neckline. So from a technical perspective I had no choice. The lower green circle with the #5 in it shows the breakout to the downside and then a nice clean backtest to the underside of the bottom uptrend rail. That was textbook. That same area started to trade sideways and didn’t break much lower which eventually carved out that 5 point triangle reversal pattern that is the bottom at point #5. I said at the time that the 5 point triangle reversal pattern would have enough energy to get the price of gold back up to the top rail of the big red rectangle which has occurred.

Sticking with the same chart lets now focus in on the second green circle that has point #6 in it. This is where it gets interesting. Once gold was able to trade above the bottom black rail of the 2008 uptrend channel, that was a very bullish situation, as it showed gold being very strong. Now gold is trapped between the top red rail of the rectangle and the bottom rail of the 2008 uptrend channel. As you can see on the chart below the price action is being squeezed out into an apex where the two trendlines come together. Its only going to be a matter of time before one of those trendlines gives way. This brings us back to why I showed you the dollar charts above because if the dollar breaks down from the bear flag gold will breakout above the top red rail at point #six. Once gold trades comfortably above the top rail of the rectangle the top red rail will reverse its role and act as support on any decline. It will also confirm the 5 point rectangle as a reversal pattern to the upside.

These charts above are showing that the risk on trade is entering a very critical area. The consolidation period is now 5 weeks in the making which isn’t all that long but if gold is in a strong move higher this might be all it takes to make the breakout move higher. Notice all the small red consolidation patterns that formed between the 2008 low and the top at 1920 made last September within the 2008 uptrend channel. Put yourself in one of those many red consolidation patterns to get a feel of time, as time can wear most investors out waiting for the price action to start.  All the best…Rambus

…………………..

EDITOR’S NOTE :
Rambus Chartology is Primarily a Goldbug TA Site where you can watch Rambus follow the markets on a daily basis and learn a great deal of Hands on Chartology from Rambus Tutorials and Question and Answeres .
Most Members are Staunch Goldbugs who have seen Rambus in action from the 2007 to 2008 period at www.goldtent.org and now Here at Rambus Chartology since early 2012 .
To review his Work and incredible calls from the 2007-2008 period click on the top right sidebar in the “Wizard of Rambus” ….”What If !!” Post
To Follow Rambus Unique Unbiased Chart Work and participate in a Chartology Form with questions and answeres and learn the Art and Science and Mindset of a Pro Trader please Join us by subscribing monthly for $29.99 at
www.rambus1.com
We have many subscribers from all over the world who are glad they did as they enjoy the many daily updates and commentaries provided at this exciting new site
As you will see Rambus (Dave) has prepared us for this difficult period by being one of the only ones to see and warn about this incredibly debilitating PM smackdown as early as Jan 2 2012 …click on the” HUI Diamond in the Rough” Post in the “Wizard of Rambus” top right
More Recently Rambus called a Bottom in HUI in this post…and has subscribers on board for a Powerful Run to the Upside
http://rambus1.com/?p=5651
What is he seeing Now ?
You will find Rambus to be a calm humble down home country tutor with an incredible repitoir of all the TA based protocols tempered with his own one of a kind style…simply put…He wants to keep his subscribers on the right side of these crazy volitile and downright dangerous markets
See you at the Rambus Chartology
…………………….

Fully asked me if I would post a chart on CALVF as there seems to be a big debate going on about this this stock. The monthly chart is the only chart that needs to be shown to get a feel of where its been in the past and where it’s currently trading. CALVF has been trading in a very large trading range between .03 at the low end and .36 at the top. There appears to be a possible large inverse H&S bottom forming with the left shoulder being a triangle and the right shoulder taking on the shape of a falling wedge. I’ve also put on a neckline symmetry rail, thin black dashed trendline, that is parallel to the neckline that showed the low for the right shoulder. The first step in the right direction would be for a close above the top rail of the falling wedge on increased volume.  There could be a ping pong move between the neckline and the top blue rail of the falling wedge which would be a backtest move. The real tell will be a breakout of the potential neckline of the inverse H&S bottom on big volume.  So far volume is light on the falling wedge, right shoulder, which is OK for now. It just needs to start expanding when and if a breakout occurs.  All the best…Rambus

New Feature added

Scroll down to the bottom of the right sidebar for near realtime daily quotes (15 minute delayed)

on all Rambus PF Stocks and Kamikazi Trades

More to come

Charting is one of many disciplines used to follow the markets. You have Elliot wave guys that base the market movements on wave counts and cycle analyst that look at the different cycles from short to long term. A good Elliot Wave analysts can look at a chart and start counting waves based on years of experience. An experienced cycle guy will understand when a cycle is left or right translated whereas the inexperienced cycle person will say, because the price action didn’t turn on a dime when he expected it to, cycles are worthless to follow.   With any discipline that one uses, it takes alot of hard work and time to finally become some what proficient in understanding what the markets are throwing at them. There is no holy grail when it comes to the markets but if one takes the time and makes an honest effort to understand one of the disciplines they can get the odds in their favor to make a trading decision base on something other than pure emotions.

For me personally, charting the markets is the way I interrupt market movements based on chart patterns and understanding how support and resistance works. In the late 70’s an old timer gave me a book by Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, that showed all these neat chart patterns but it bored him to tears.  I couldn’t put the book down. I read it over and over again until I understood exactly what was being taught. That was the book learning part of charting. Then you have the “real time” work to put in, following the markets on a day to day basis and learning through trial and error and mistakes, that finally, if one sticks with it, things start to make sense. There is no better teacher than real time experience.

In this weekend report I would like to show you the chartology of the HUI based on my own personal experiences with charting over the years. We’ll look at some chart patterns based on bar charts and some line charts in different time frames. I want to focus in on the big one plus year top that the HUI craved out mostly in 2011. As you can see on the chart below the big top was made up of two different chart patterns. The first pattern to observe is the 11 point diamond reversal pattern. The red numbers shows you the 11 complete reversal points, which an odd number of reversal points, makes a reversal pattern. Just a quick note. A double bottom or top is a three point reversal pattern. A H&S top or bottom is a 5 point reversal pattern. The diamond on the chart below is an eleven point reversal pattern. You can have five, seven or more odd numbered reversal points in a triangle or rectangle that will reverse the trend. An even number of reversal point such as four, six, eight or more will end up being a consolidation pattern or continuation pattern.

As you can see on the chart above there is also a beautiful nine point H&S reversal pattern, not numbered. The diamond pattern actually gave one an earlier warning that the trend was about to reverse back down with the breakout gap just below point number 11. Note the quick backtest to the blue rail and then the fall away move down to the big neckline where a small rectangle formed, right on the neckline. As the little red rectangle was only a four point pattern it had to be classified as a continuation pattern to the downside. I know alot of gold bugs were not happy with my call to go to cash but the evidence was so overwhelming.  I had no choice in the matter.

Next I want to show you the same one year top using a daily line chart. A line chart just takes the closing daily price and adds it to the next days closing price connected by a line. On the chart below you can see how beautiful and symmetrical the H&S top looks. On the line chart the little red rectangle formed just below the neckline, which was now acting as resistance,  followed by one more small consolidation pattern, the four point bearish falling flag. The big H&S top hit its measured move price objective down at 370. That satisfied the minimum price objective.

Lets look at one more chart of the big H&S top, on a weekly line chart, before we move on to our most recent pattern, the double bottom.  Sometimes a line chart can takeout some of the noise a bar chart might show by taking out some of the big interday price swings that can get wild sometimes. Double bottoms and double tops, on a line chart, often stick out like a sore thumb whereas on a bar chart they might be harder to spot. Anyway you can view the neckline as a support and resistance rail. Above is support and below is resistance. Note the other two H&S patterns on the chart below.

We now know that the big H&S pattern was a reversal pattern to the downside which met its downside price objective at 370. Now, in order to get a reversal of trend we need to see some type of reversal pattern form at the lows. The two patterns I always look for is an inverse H&S bottom or a double bottom. In our current situation the HUI has put in a beautiful double bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom isn’t complete until the double bottom hump is taken out to the upside. You can see on the chart below the double bottom hump was actually a small double top that separated the left and right bottoms. This chart is also a good study in how support and resistance works. If you follow the price action up from the right bottom, note how cleanly the HUI moved up and through the apex of the five point bearish falling wedge, green circle. Keep in mind trendlines on a chart pattern are nothing more than a support or resistance rail. Chart patterns shows you the battle that is going on between the bulls and the bears until one side wins out. The way the price action moved through the apex of the falling wedge tells me the HUI wants to go higher as it’s not wasting much energy getting above the two blue trendlines, at the apex, which should have been some pretty serious overhead resistance. The two small red horizontal rails shows where we should see some kind of consolidation pattern form if indeed the bottom is in place.

The next chart shows the downtrend channel that is made up of the five point bearish falling wedge and our current double bottom. Again note how cleanly the price action was when the HUI took out the overhead resistance, green circle.

Alot of times when a stock makes a double bottom there will be a strong decline going into the first bottom. After the second bottom is completed a move of equal magnitude, in the opposite direction can take place, I call this reverse symmetry. The chart below shows our double bottom with the reverse symmetry taking place shown by the black arrows.The double bottom has a price objective up to the 550 area

I want to show you one last chart that I have never posted. Until our recent double bottom became apparent I wasn’t able to draw in the bottom trendline. Most chartists will view this chart as bearish but I can assure you if it breaks out through the top blue rail it will be very bullish for the HUI. The chart below shows the whole bull market with the big complex inverse H&S base and the smaller red consolidation patterns that formed up until the 2008 top which is the start of this pattern. With the completion of our recent double bottom we now have four reversal points in play. The first reversal point is the 2008 H&S top. The crash low inverse H&S bottom that I showed you on the weekly line chart is reversal point number two. The big H&S top that we discussed at length at the beginning of this article is reversal point number three and our recent double bottom is reversal point number four.  The HUI still has alot of work to do yet to get up to the top blue rail of the bullish rising wedge. How we interact with the top rail will give us some major clues if this potential blue bullish rising wedge will be a halfway pattern to the upside. The potential bullish rising wedge is telling us that the HUI has been basically consolidating since the 2008 H&S top was made.

If you think a rising wedge is always a bear pattern I would like to show you one we’ve been following at Rambus Chartology that is made up of two small red  individual chart patterns.

So there you have it from this chartists perspective, The Chartology of the HUI bull market to date.  All the best…Rambus

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Rambus Chartology

www.rambus1.com