When a good move begins it’s always nice to see the leaders leading. FNV was one of the leaders during the bull market years. Starting with the 2 hour chart FNV has built out a blue bullish rising wedge and has broken out topside. Remember these types of patterns show up in strong impulse moves.

The weekly chart for FNV shows it has broken out from a bullish expanding falling wedge this week and is testing its all time highs. Note the big volume breakout.

I’ve been showing two different long term monthly charts with one showing a triangle consolidation pattern and the other one was a possible rectangle. Right now the pattern that is winning out is the potential triangle which has just completed its fourth reversal point right at its all time highs. The bullish rising wedge on the 2 hour chart above suggests that there is a good chance that FNV will breakout to new highs as the bullish rising wedge is forming just below the top rail of the four year triangle. Is this previews of coming attractions? I plan on doing the Weekend Report showing some other PM stocks that look to be turning around.

This is the Question on Everyone’s mind .

Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle which has an odd number of reversal points, five, which makes it a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern.

This next daily chart for the HUI shows the double bottom with the flag pole and backtest to the double bottom hump at 139. In a perfect Chartology world what would make the most sense would be for the HUI to form a small consolidation pattern in the area I’ve marked, trading range, which is the area between our current high and the top of the double bottom hump at 139 which is also the 38% retrace of this impulse move. Again this would be the perfect setup but the markets have a way of faking you out sometimes which it maybe doing right now. Even tho the HUI is overbought there is no law that says it can’t get more overbought before the inevitable correction takes place.

Below is a long term daily line chart which shows the HUI is trading right into the brown shaded support and resistance zone right now.

We’ve been following this long term monthly chart for the HUI which shows the fanlines that have developed during the bear market. Normally when a fanline is broken to the downside many times you’ll get a rally that will backtest the previous fanline from below. Right now the HUI is testing fanline #3 from below. The Chart in the ointment .

The weekly chart shows the HUI breaking above the top rail of its bear market downtrend channel.

This last chart for the HUI shows its double bottom which has formed after an almost five year decline. I mentioned in the past the two patterns that generally show up at the end of a trend is a H&S or a double bottom or top depending on which way the trend has been going, so the double bottom fits in perfectly for a reversal pattern. The HUI is doing all the right thing in here to reverse its major bear market. There is still some overhead resistance to contend with but if the new bull market is beginning the HUI will find a way to takeout that overhead resistance and start making higher highs and higher lows.

Next Week will be very interesting . Stay Tuned

All the best

Rambus

The HUI is doing everything right. Any backtest to the double bottom trendline around the 140 area should be bought now as it’s a very clean line in the sand. This is the Chartology talking to us. The move is impulsive which is what we wanted to see.

Last night I showed you this potential double bottom forming on the HUI. Today is the first big test of the double bottom hump at 140. If this is indeed a double bottom forming we should see a strong move up after a possible backtest to the 140 area. Keep your fingers crossed.

There is alot of action going on this week in all the different areas of the markets. The PM complex has been rallying, the US dollar tanking today and the stock markets trying to make up their mind which way they want to go in the short term. I have a ton of work to do on the side bar where all the trades are listed so I’m going to show you what I would like to see happen in regards to the HUI, gold and silver.

If the PM complex is bottoming in here it has to show us its hand. There is no way around it. Usually when a bottom or top is formed the first move out of the reversal pattern, after a possible backtest, should be very strong or impulsive in nature. The bigger and stronger the move is the better. Below is a weekly chart for the HUI with few annotations on it so you can see the clean picture. Most of the time you will either see some type of H&S reversal pattern or double top or bottom reversal pattern.

The best reversal pattern for the HUI at this point is the double bottom with the first bottom forming last August and the second one 2 1/2 weeks ago. If this possible double bottom is going to play out I want to see the double bottom hump or double bottom trendline broken to the upside. Then after a possible backtest to the double bottom hump at 140 or so we need to see a strong impulse move up to the brown shaded support and resistance zone between 190 and 205. We may see some reverse symmetry as shown by the red arrows. If the HUI can make it up to the brown shaded S&R zone it will be due a breather and some type of consolidation pattern will build out. We should also see a fib retrace of 38%, 50% or 62% of the rally out of the second bottom at 100 or so. This would be the perfect setup.

Below is a weekly chart for gold which shows the price action out of the 2008 crash low. The top of that trading range came in around the 1030 area as shown by the brown shaded S&R zone. On the right hand side of the chart you can see the blue falling wedge, the pattern from hell, with the possible 7th reversal point forming just above the brown shaded S&R zone. With seven reversal points in play, and if gold can breakout above the top rail, then the almost three year falling wedge would be a reversal pattern to the upside. That big falling wedge reversal pattern should give gold a lot of energy to rally. So if gold is bottoming in here then it has to show us the way by taking it one step at a time.

This next chart for gold I’ve been showing you is the important moving averages chart. Today gold closed above the very important 200 day ma with only the 300 day ma left above. It’s going to take some time to turn all these moving averages around like after the 2008 crash low but once they’re all nicely aligned to the upside they will show us the major trend.

This next chart of GLD is one I showed you last week which shows the one year double trendline downtrend channel with the pink numbers on it. Gold closed right on the outside dashed trendline today completing the seventh reversal point with the 65 week moving average just above at 111.20.

This next chart is another one I showed you last week which has the fib retracements on it. The previous decline labeled with black arrows retraced 62% of that move before gold fell lower. The blue arrows shows the fib retrace of the last down move. As you can see today gold close above the 62% retrace which is a positive. Also notice how its reversing symmetry back up as shown by the red arrows. It looks like the brown shaded S&R zone between 1170 and 1180 should be the next place to look for some resistance to show up.

Here is the other chart for gold I showed you last week that just has the black dashed support and resistance lines on it. The blue bullish rising wedge just became apparent today when the price action took out the top rail.

This last chart for gold is a long term monthly chart we’ve been following for several years which shows the brown shaded S&R zones with the 10 month ema. When I first built this chart I labeled it as a reverse symmetry chart as I was expecting the bear market to resemble the bull market to a certain degree. It did when gold initially bottomed at the brown S&R zone labeled #3. From that point the reverse symmetry went out the window as the blue falling wedge took over. These same numbers have been on the chart since the first day I built it. The 4th S&R zone is between 985 and 1034 which is taken from the top in 2008 and 2009. This month is still very young yet but gold is trading above the 10 month ema which has done a good job of holding support during the bull market years and resistance during the bear market years. The only change I’ve made on this chart, and that was just now, is I’ve adjusted the bottom rail of the blue falling wedge to fit the bottoms better. Is 1034 going to be the actual low?

Now lets take a quick look at silver which looks like it broke out of a nice base today. You can call the price action anything you want below the S&R line but the S&R line is now our line in the sand, above is bullish and below is bearish. There was a nice increase in volume today also.

Below is an old chart I just dug up which shows the old blue rectangle which broke down in April of 2011. At the time the blue rectangle was forming I showed how the center dashed line works as support and resistance. Notice the last two blue arrows inside the rectangle just before silver broke below the bottom rail. First silver got a little pop off of the dashed center line, and then the drop through the center line with one last backtest. That was the start if the major impulse move down. Now lets look at the price action which has made up the black falling wedge. As I’ve mentioned many times in the past a chart pattern can be made up of several smaller consolidation patterns before it finishes building out. The first consolidation pattern that formed inside the black falling wedge was the blue triangle that broke down to reversal point #3. Some of you may remember the H&S consolidation pattern that formed next with several  backtests to the neckline. Silver has completed 6 reversal points so far with the seventh underway right now. If this is the start of a new bull market for silver it needs to complete the 7th reversal point and then take out the top rail of the falling wedge.

Today was a bit frustrating in regards to the stock markets as there are many rising wedges and flags that have formed over the last three weeks or so. Below is the 2 hour chart we’ve been following lately that shows the red expanding triangle inside the blue rising wedge. As you can see the SPX found support again today on the bottom rail of the expanding triangle and then bounced all the way up to the bottom rail of the blue rising wedge where it closed the day. Normally with these types of patterns don’t waste much time in fulfilling their expected move. Tomorrow is going to be critical, on the short term, to see if the bottom rail of the blue rising wedge holds resistance or fails.

Below is a 2 hour chart for the QQQ which shows the blue rising wedge up close and personal.

The last chart for tonight shows the importance of the little blue rising wedge as it could very well be the right shoulder of a H&S top. To say the moment of truth has arrived for the stock markets is an understatement. The same can be said for the PM complex as well. Are we witnessing a major inflection point where the stock markets enter into a bear market and the PM complex a bull market. As they say, we’ll know in the fullness of time.  All the best…Rambus

Last week we looked at this 2 hour chart for SLV which was showing a 7 point rising channel that had a false breakout above the top rail and the very next day it gapped below the top rail which looked bearish. This morning SLV gapped back above the top rail of the 7 point rising channel which, with an odd number of reversal points, equals a reversal pattern.

Below is the longer term daily chart which shows you our little blue rising channel and how it fits into the bigger picture. As you can see the little blue rising channel has formed at a possible 5th reversal point within the year old black falling wedge. It looks like the 14.80 area is going to determine if SLV is in a new bull market if the price action can close above the top rail.

The QQQ is sitting at a very interesting place right now. It has formed a reverse symmetry blue rising wedge as a possible right shoulder. The left shoulder was a bullish expanding falling wedge. Our first clue that the bigger H&S top is in play is when we see the bottom rail of the rising wedge give way. So far the brown shaded S&R zone has held resistance.

Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you’re perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it’s two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it’s two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you’ll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it’s so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that’s what the charts are suggesting.

Last Friday the US dollar had a nice up day to end the month of January which was positive. There are two consolidation patterns I’m keeping a close eye on for the US dollar which is the bullish falling wedge and the H&S consolidation pattern. This first daily chart for the US dollar is the H&S consolidation pattern we’ve been following since December of last year. Even tho last Friday, the US dollar had a nice up day, the price action still hasn’t broken above the neckline yet. It’s getting close but not quite there yet.

This next chart for the US dollar shows the combo bullish falling wedge and the H&S consolidation pattern being one of the same, a consolidation pattern. The blue arrows shows the last major impulse move up with several smaller consolidation patterns that formed.

Below is a daily line chart for the US dollar which shows the price action still trading above the 20 and 50 day ema’s.

Last weekend I said I would like to see the monthly candlestick chart for the US dollar form a white candlestick and a new high for its bull market. We got the white candlestick but not the new high yet.

The 30 year chart for the US dollar puts our current big base and bullish falling wedge in perspective. Our current breakout and backtest to the top rail of the blue falling wedge looks very similar to the one that occurred during the breakout and backtest sequence of the 1999 blue bullish rising wedge which took about three months to complete. Tomorrow starts the beginning of the fourth month since the breakout of the blue falling wedge which is similar to the 1999 breakout as shown by the red circles.

This last chart for the US dollar is a long term monthly combo chart which has the US dollar on top and gold on the bottom. As you can see a serious inflection point is right at hand. If the US dollar can breakout to new highs for its bull market, gold which is testing the top rail of its parabolic downtrend channel should decline inversely. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart. It will be interesting to see what the monthly bar looks like for both the US dollar and gold come the end of February.

Below is a weekly chart for the UUP which shows the possible H&S consolidation pattern with alot less noise than a daily chart can make.

This next chart is the USDU which is the newer version for the US dollar which is more equally weighted. Several weeks ago it broke out topside from the black bullish rising wedge. This past week it backtested the top rail and is getting a bounce. This is a critically important area right here.

The weekly bar chart for the USDU shows it’s ahead of the traditional US dollar index as it has made an new high for its bull market complete with the breakout and backtest.

The weekly line chart for the USDU shows it actually broke out of its blue triangle consolidation pattern last fall with the 30 week ema giving strong support.

Next I want to focus in on the TLT, 20 year treasury bond fund, which is playing a big role in how I’m looking at commodities, the precious metals complex and the deflationary spiral we find ourselves in. The first thing we need to know is if the TLT is in a bullish or bearish mode right now. This first chart is a daily line chart which shows the TLT breaking out of a pretty nice base at the beginning of 2016. The 20 and 50 day ema’s have a bullish crossover while all the indicator are positive. I’m going to show you this daily line chart first so you can see the difference between a bar chart, which can produce more noise sometimes, vs a line chart. Both charts will be identical except one will be a line and one a bar.

Now the bar chart.

Next lets look at the weekly line chart for the TLT which shows its bull market consolidation patterns. Note the strongly slanted H&S consolidation pattern which has just completed the breakout and and backtest. Note how the backtest to the neckline found support right on the 30 week ema. All the indicators are positive.

Below is the exact same chart using a bar chart.

The long term monthly chart for the TLT shows its complete history which is a double trendline uptrend channel. Note how our current H&S consolidation pattern formed right on top of the brown shaded support and resistance zone. So far so good.

Now I would like to show you why it’s so important to have a bullish looking TLT in regards to being short the commodities and the PM complex. This next chart is a ratio chart which compares the TIP:TLT on top with the $CRB and GDX below it. This is where the TLT charts we just looked at above come into play. I’ve overlaid the TLT in red over the ratio chart TIP:TLT in black. When the ratio chart on top in black is rising, it’s showing general inflation and when it’s falling deflation. Note the H&S consolidation pattern on the TLT, which we looked at earlier in red, and the inverse look which shows the ratio chart in black with a H&S consolidation pattern. As long as these keep moving in their current direction we should see deflation picking up. Note how the  $CRB and the GDX have behaved during this deflationary cycle. Also note how the ratio chart in black topped out in 2011 along with the $ CRB index and the GDX. It’s not a perfect correlation but close enough to get the sense of the inverse movement.

This last chart for tonight I’m going to use the TLT to GLD ratio chart on top and GLD on the bottom. When the ratio chart is rising, meaning the TLT is outperforming GLD, gold generally goes down. Note the inverse look at the 2008 crash low where the ratio chart made a high and GLD on the bottom made its low. From the 2008 crash low GLD then went on its near parabolic run to new all time highs while the ratio chart on top fell to its low. As you can see the ratio chart bottomed in 2011 while GLD topped out as shown by the red arrows. Note the three year H&S bottom the ratio chart made on top, with the head being the 2011 low. The ratio chart on top built out a blue triangle consolidation pattern as the backtest to the neckline which led to the next impulse move higher for the ratio chart. That brings us up to our current situation. Note how the ratio chart on top has formed the blue rising wedge while GLD on the bottom has formed a blue falling wedge. When the ratio chart on top breaks out from that blue rising wedge, whichever direction that is, a good move for GLD will most likely occur. If the charts for the TLT, which I showed you earlier prove to be bullish, then the TLT:GLD ratio chart on top should breakout through the top rail of the blue rising wedge. Until something changes with these ratio charts for the TLT this is the way I have to play the commodities and the PM complex. All the best…Rambus

This weekend I’m going to try and put together a comprehensive report on how all the different pieces of the puzzle are fitting together right now in regards to the stock markets, precious metals complex, currencies and the commodities. There is a big picture look that I hope I can show you so you will know where I’m coming from and why I’ve taken the trades I have. All these different markets are connected in a certain way that hopefully I’ll be able to show you using charts. It will be a long report which I will post in two parts, over the weekend. Either I have the big picture right or I’ll be totally wrong in my perceptions of what the different markets are doing right now. You should have a clear understanding of the big picture after this weekend.

I’ve been working on a lot of charts over the last several days to get ready for the Weekend Report and I still have more to build so there will be just one chart tonight, the long term monthly chart for gold. I first built this chart back in 2013 after gold broke below the bottom rail of its bull market uptrend channel, the expanding rising wedge. You can see where gold broke below the bottom rail of its expanding rising wedge and backtested that important trendline from below which created the right shoulder of that massive H&S top.

Long term members may remember when I extended the neckline from the 2008 H&S consolidation pattern all the way across the chart which came right in line with the initial break of the bottom rail of the bearish expanding rising wedge. It’s called the 2008 neckline extension rail with the heavy NL on it. That heavy neckline held support for close to 15 months before the price action finally broke below it signalling the big H&S top was breaking out. You can see there was a strong backtest to the underside of the heavy neckline but it held resistance. From that strong backtest high gold spent the next year declining down to the lowest neckline symmetry line which is taken from the bottom of the left and right shoulder of the 2008 H&S consolidation pattern.

Gold finally broke below the lowest neckline symmetry rail in November of last year, third bar from the right. So far gold has been backtesting the neckline symmetry rail for this month of January. There is still one more week left to trade this month so it’ll be interesting to see if the neckline symmetry rail holds resistance.  If the current backtest holds resistance and gold begins to break below last months low then it should start heading for the massive H&S price objective down to the 685 to 725 area as shown by the brown shaded support and resistance zone.

Ever since I put that heavy neckline extension rail on this chart there hasn’t been one time when I thought the bear market was over. Just the opposite as you can see by the series of lower lows and lower highs all the way down from the bull market top in 2011. Just think for a moment about how hard its been for us shorting this bear market vs all the gold investors who have bought each bottom thinking the bear market was over and each time gold went lower. The bottom line is that it looks like 2016 is going to be a very interesting year. Have a great weekend and all the best…Rambus

PS: My buy point was hit today on JDST when it backtested the S&R line at 36.25 where I bought another small position of 250 shares. As you can see this is a critical backtest taking place right now.