This is a condensed version of Rambus Weekend Report. There are over 20 individual PM stocks individually updated in the full version.

I would like to start out this Weekend Report by looking at a long term monthly chart for the GDX. The multi year bear market actually began in September of 2011 at the head portion of the 3 1/2 year H&S top. The H&S top actually began to form in September of 2009 and ended in February of 2013 when the price action broke below the neckline. From that point the GDX declined for the next three years in its bear market so from a technical perspective the GDX ended its bear market in January of 2016 which marked its all time low.

The rally out of the 2016 low lasted seven months and ended in September of the same year. After a strong impulse move like that one looks for the price action to consolidate its gains before moving higher. There was no way to know at the time what trading range would develop and how long it will take to complete. Now in hindsight we can see the GDX built out the 2016 bullish falling wedge, that we’ve been following for well over a year, which took two years to complete from the August 2016 high to the September 2018 low. It wasn’t until the breakout above the top rail of the 2016 bullish falling wedge and the completion of the backtest two months ago in May that we had significant confirmation that the bear market that began in September of 2011 was officially over.

Now that we know the bear market is officially over depending on what matrix you want to use, calling the 2016 low the beginning of the new bull market or the completion of the backtest to the top rail of the 2016 bullish falling wedge in May of this year the completion, the bottom line is that it’s time to start thinking in bull market terms leaving the bear market logic behind.

After five months of the breaking out and backtesting process out of the way the GDX has  created a new high this month keeping the new uptrend intact. So if we are going to start playing by bull market rules we can now do a measured move to see how high the power of the 2016 bullish falling wedge can take the GDX. The measured move I’m showing on this weekly chart is called an impulse measured move which measures each half of the impulse move with the 2016 falling wedge being the halfway pattern. The first two blue arrows measure the first impulse leg up from the 2016 low to the August 2016 high. The second set of blue arrows on the right side of the 2016 falling wedge measures the second impulse move which has a price objective up to the 43.57 area.

There is also another important area of resistance that might come into play and that is the old neckline from the 2011 H&S top, labeled neckline extension, which will come into play around the 37.50. The bottom line is that the PM complex is in its second impulse leg higher which will look clear as a bell when we look back in hindsight. As I’ve mentioned previously the hardest thing to do during an impulse move is to do, NOTHING.

I’ve spent all weekend updating and annotating all the stock in the, Gold Stocks Portfolio, so you can see how things are coming along. There will be three charts for each PM stock, daily, weekly, and monthly which will show you the reasons I picked these stocks to start with. As this new impulse move continues to move higher I may tweak some of the weaker PM stocks for some that are showing more strength, but for now I’m content to stick with the original portfolio.

When looking at each individual stock, note how the daily shorter term charts will show many small H&S bottoms and double bottoms that have or are forming at the last reversal point in the bigger 2016 patterns. The weekly charts will show you the dominate chart pattern which is the 2016 bullish falling wedge with a few triangles. The long term monthly charts should put the new bull market in perspective with many of the PM stocks building out some very large consolation patterns.

There are many different ways to play the PM stocks. Some investors like to stick to the big cap producers as they will perform well during the bull market but won’t give you the leverage and is a safer play. Some will gravitate toward the Royalty stocks that usually do very well in a bull market as Sir Plunger has done.

As for me, after trading the bull market before the 2008 crash, I found that in a bull market the tide lifts all boats, some higher than others, but in general most get lifted. Even some of the juniors that from a fundamental perspective don’t look that good on paper can still rise with the tide. There is no other place in the markets that offers a chance for leverage to the degree some of the PM juniors will show during their bull market. To get that leverage one has to buy them cheap before they explode higher knocking down your leverage. This strategy is much riskier than buying your safer PM stocks but if you can get several to really take off it will make up the difference for the ones that don’t play out as you expected.

Before I finish I want to make if perfectly clear that we could see a backtest take place on the GDX to the one and a half year old neckline that would come into play around the 23.95 area.

A backtest to the top rail on gold’s 2016 triangle would come into play around the 1345 area.

A backtest to the 6 year golden neckline would come in around the 1345 area.

On the portfolio stocks below I’ve added a blue circle to the monthly charts that shows up in the top right hand corner of the chart, which shows what each stock did for the month of June on a percentage basis. I’ve also got the, Gold Stocks Portfolio, updated on the sidebar, with these stocks to follow. Everything should now be up to date. All the best…Rambus

JNUG 6-30-19 Update: 5 for 1 reverse split on 6-28-19. Daily.

JNUG weekly:

JNUG monthly:

NUGT daily:

NUGT weekly:

USLV weekly:

USLV monthly:

Going Forward I will be focusing on the PM Sector , as that is where the greatest potential moves are , following the breakout of many stocks in the PM Complex. Big bases = Big moves.

Of course I may also have a new portfolio of General Market Leveraged positions , as these markets are also on the verge of breakouts.

Interesting and Exciting times for Traders and Investors alike. Stay Tuned.

I’ve always said that gold built out one of the most beautiful bull markets of all time between the 2001 low and 2011 high. From a Chartology perspective it just doesn’t get any better. During the bull market years I called this weekly bar chart, “JUST ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL, because each consolidation pattern marked another brick in the wall.

The reason I’m posting this chart tonight is because we could be embarking on a similar bull market starting at the 2001 low. Take a minute and put yourself back at the 2001 low not knowing what lies ahead. As gold began to rally the first thing one would look for in a new bull market is a consolidation pattern which gold produced in 2002 that was the blue triangle. Once the price action broke out of that small blue triangle the next impulse began confirming the new bull market. From that point one had to believe in the Chartology that the major trend was up until a new lower low was put in place. As long as each consolidation pattern was followed by an impulse move up the bull market remained intact, rinse and repeat.

When you study the bull market you will see the price action always made a higher low except for the major correction in 2008 which was the blue expanding falling wedge that  led to the crash in the PM complex. That 2008 blue expanding falling wedge doesn’t look like a big deal in the overall bull market but it was a big deal for the PM stocks which took a beating.

If you look real close you can see a small green triangle that formed in the middle of each impulse move up as a halfway pattern. Again classic Chartology. You can also see the thin black rectangles that measured the impulse move on the breakout from the previous large consolidation pattern labeled 1,2,3,4.

The official end of the bull market came when the price action built out the blue 2 1/2 year rectangle consolidation pattern that formed just below the all time high in September of 2011. The breakdown from that blue rectangle ushered in the great decline in 2013 confirming a new bear market had begun in earnest. There was no way to know back then how long or how low the new bear market would go only that a new bear market was in place and it was time to play by bear market rules.

When I look at the Chartology on this chart it shows me a market that is free of manipulation. Gold bugs are known for their manipulation theories on the PM complex but when I see such a beautiful bull market filled with perfect chart patterns this shows me a free market with millions of investors making a decision to either buy or sell gold and gold related assets. Manipulators would have to manipulate currencies as well to get their desired results It would be impossible to manipulate all the major currencies of the world in concert. It’s always nice to have someone or something to blame when the markets don’t go the way we think they should so we create manipulation as the scapegoat. If I thought the PM complex was manipulated there is no way I would trade this area of the markets. It would be a fools game to do so. With that said I won’t bring up the subject again. Have a great weekend and all the best…Rambus

I have just enough time to post this combo chart for the UUP and the HUI we’ve been following very closely. The HUI is now in day four of the breakout from its bullish expanding falling wedge.

The HUI is now in day 5 of its breakout from the small H&S bottom / right shoulder.

The HUI is now attempting to breakout from its year and a half H&S neckline.

We are having a big family cookout today so this Weekend Report will be an abbreviated version.

I haven’t posted this combo ratio chart in several years but it was one that we followed very close back in the day. This ratio combo chart has the HUI:GOLD ratio on top with GOLD on the bottom. During the initial rally phase of the PM complex bull market starting back in 2000 the gold stocks kicked gold’s butt for the first three years or so into the December 2003 high on the ratio. Believe it or not that marked the end of the PM stocks outperformance vs gold. It’s been one long term downtrend for the ratio that still hasn’t completely reversed back up in favor of the HUI.

The ratio chart on top produced some very nice chart patterns on the way down including some reverse symmetry as shown by the red arrows. Note the big S&R line that produced the small red bull flag in 2001 and the reverse symmetry red bear flag that formed in 2012 on the way down. When the 2012 bear flag broke to the downside I suggested we could see .13 that was the all time low for the ratio which was also the measured move. You can see the price action undercut .13 during the 2015 – 2016 low which actually marked the all time low for the ratio. From that all time low the ratio began to rally where the HUI outperformed gold during that 2016 impulse move higher.

After that strong impulse move ended in August of 2016 the PM stocks began to underperform gold once again this time building out the 2016 falling wedge that is so prevalent across many of the PM stock indexes and individual PM stocks. It’s now been about 4 1/2 years later when the ratio first hit .13 and this week the ratio closed at .13 or no change. What the ratio does have going for it is the 2016 falling wedge has completed the breakout with the backtest now underway.

One thing we know absolutely 100% for sure is that the HUI is massively undervalued to the price of gold. At some point there has to be a revision to the means where the HUI and PM stocks in general should start to outperform gold in a meaningful way like in the initial first three years of the bull market earlier this century.

Have a great Father’s Day to all the dads out there. All the best…Rambus

It’s hard to believe that the massive H&S consolidation pattern we’ve been following for several years began to develop all the way back in 2013 during the initial crash off the 2011 high. This weekly line chart shows the price action closing this week right on the neckline at 1350. Note how many touches the neckline has experienced from below with each one backing off. Now the question remains, how may bears are left to defend the 2013 neckline? There is a good chance that if they are exhausted that the price action could just spike right through the neckline this time around completing the massive H&S base which would be long term bullish. Big patterns lead to big moves.

This monthly chart shows how the H&S consolidation pattern fits into the bigger picture.

The reason I call this H&S bottom a consolidation pattern is because of the way it fits into the major bull market uptrend channel.

If gold can closeout the month of June, on this quarterly line chart above 1330, it will show a breakout above the neckline.

It’s been awhile since we last looked at this long term weekly line chart for gold which shows its 2011 bear market downtrend channel along with the 65 week ema. It is common to see a rectangle or triangle form between the top and bottom trendlines of an uptrend or downtrend channel. Here we can see the massive 2013 H&S consolidation pattern doing the same thing between the top and bottom trendlines of its 2011 bear market downtrend channel.

The breaking out and backtesting process looks a little cleaner on this weekly line chart. It was last April of 2018 that the price action touched the top rail of the 2011 downtrend channel and the H&S neckline. It was disappointing that the price action couldn’t takeout those two very important resistance lines which led to one more year of sideways chopping action. Gold is ever so close to establishing the start of the next bull cycle and by the size of the H&S base it should last for many years.

Sir Plunger will be doing the Weekend Report so stay tuned. All the best…Rambus

We’ve been following a possible positive divergence between the $BPGDM gold miners bullish percent index and the GDX. Back in December of 2016 both the $BPGDM and the GDX put in a short term bottom. The positive divergence began to show itself in September of 2018 when the GDX made a lower low vs its 2016 low while the $BPGDM made a higher low vs its 2016 low thus a positive divergence. Since the 2018 low both have been moving up together. During the December 2016 low on the $BPGDM there were 7.14 gold stocks on a buy signal. Then at the September 2018 low there were 16.67 gold stocks on a buy signal. At its most recent low the $BPGDM had 23.08 gold stocks on a buy signal.

On Friday of this week the $BPGDM gave us a new buy signal when the $BPGDM crossed above the 5 day sma and the 5 day sma crossed above the 8 day sma. Have a great weekend. All the best…Rambus

Tonight I would like to update some ratio combo charts which may give us a sense of the bigger picture. Its like putting the pieces of a puzzle together where the small pieces don’t look like much by themselves but when they’re all added together it paints a clear picture. These ratio combo charts are just a piece of the puzzle that may add some clarity to some of the individual sectors.

Lets start with the TIP:TLT ratio chart in black with the TLT in red, which I use for the inflation/deflation debate. Most investors have their own individual stocks they like to look at in trying to answer the age old question, are we in an inflationary or deflationary cycle? When the ratio in black is rising it shows signs of inflation and when it’s falling deflation becomes possible.

On the left hand side of the chart you can see how the ratio in black topped out while the TLT was bottoming in 2011. Also at the bottom of the chart I have added the GDX and the CRB index with the 30 week ema which also topped out in 2011. Since the 2011 high the main trend has been down for the ratio chart in black which shows deflation. In July of 2016 both the ratio and the TLT topped out beginning a consolidation phase that would last for about 2 1/2 years with each forming a triangle consolidation pattern. In November of 2018 both broke out of their respective triangles signaling that we may see some deflation in our future. Again, at the bottom of the chart you can see the CRB index along with the GDX are currently trading below their 30 week ema which is not the end of the world but short term negative. The bottom line is that as long as the ratio in black keeps falling the odds favor a possible deflationary event maybe in the cards in the future.

This next ratio combo chart has the TLT:GLD ratio on top with GLD on the bottom. Remember correlations are never perfect but it is the general trend we want to focus in on.  When the ratio chart on top is rising it generally means GLD is falling. During the 2008 crash in GLD the ratio was topping while GLD was bottoming. Then in 2011 GLD was topping while the ratio was bottoming as shown by the red arrows. From that point in 2011 the ratio has been rising while GLD has been declining.

In June of 2018 the ratio broke out above the top rail of its 2016 falling wedge formation while GLD broke below the bottom rail of its 2016 triangle which was technically a sell signal for GLD. The thin black dashed arrow starting in 2011 shows the uptrend for the ratio and the downtrend for GLD. There is a bit of an aberration taking place currently where GLD is trading right on its 2011 downtrend line while the ratio is trading significantly above its 2011 uptrend line. It will be interesting to see how this divergent plays out in the coming weeks and months. Some of you may recall the 2016 bearish rising wedge on the ratio chart which led to that rally phase in GLD when the bottom rail was broken to the downside. That was one of our clues to get long the PM stocks back in January of 2016 which ended up being a short lived buy signal of only eight months, no big trend change.

This next chart is a combo chart which has the GDX on top with the $BPGDM on the bottom. Buy signals are given when the price action is above the 5 day sma and the 5 day sma is above the 8 day sma and just the opposite for a sell signal. The $BPGDM is currently on a sell signal. There is another way I like to use this combo chart and that is to look for either a positive or negative divergence between the GDX and the $BPGDM as shown by the red arrows. Note the negative divergence at the 2016 high for the GDX vs the $BPGDM which was another signal I used to help get me out of the PM stocks before too much damage was done.

It’s possible we could be seeing a positive divergence taking place between the GDX and the $BPGDM since the December 2016 low. As you can see the GDX has made a lower low vs the $BPGDM in September of 2018 as shown by the red arrows. If both the GDX and the $BPGDM touch their respective trendiness at the same time there will be more PM stocks on a point and figure buy signal vs the 2016 and 2018 lows while the GDX is making a lower low. This would support a bullish setup for the PM stocks.

This next ratio combo chart we’ve looked at fairly recently which has the GOLD:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. After the 2016 rally phase on the XAU I was looking for the ratio chart on top to have a small countertrend rally into the brown shaded S&R zone to form a possible H&S top. At the same time it looked like the XAU could also form a H&S bottom. We got the countertrend rally and much more which negated the H&S top on the ratio and the potential H&S bottom on the XAU. Instead of building out a H&S top the ratio has been building out the blue rising flag formation which is not what the PM bulls want to see. That in turn is causing the XAU to decline in its 2016 falling wedge formation. The bottom line is that a break below the bottom rail on the ratio chart on top, would be very constructive for the XAU and PM stocks in general. Until then the better part of valor is to stay on the sidelines.

Below is a shorter term weekly combo chart for the combo ratio chart above which brings into focus the last six years or so of price action. Again, what we want to see is for the ratio chart on top to break below the bottom rail of its rising flag formation which in turn will cause the XAU to rally.

This next ratio chart compares GOLD to the SPX going back 50 years. When the ratio is falling GOLD is in a bear market vs the SPX and vise versa. As you can see the big trends can last a very long time before a reversal is seen. As long as the price action trades below the 200 week sma GOLD is in a bear market vs the SPX.

Below is just a 15 year weekly chart for the GOLD:SPX ratio along with its 200 week sma, which shows just one sell signal for gold vs the SPX in 2013. Earlier this year the ratio made it almost all the way up to the 200 week sma but turned down before breaking out. A breakout above the 200 week sma would be a very bullish development for gold and the PM complex in general.

I had a couple of more ratio charts I was going to show you tonight but for some reason I’ve been unable to download charts from Stock Charts as of about 10 minutes ago. These charts above show you what to look for in regards to seeing confirmation that a new bull market in PM complex is truly underway. All the best…Rambus