In this report I want to focus on just some simple but effect indicators such as moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. The first chart shows some daily moving averages that have come into play at some point in the bull market. The 150 dma has been one of the best short term moving averages for identifying bottoms and the 300 dma has been very good for the longer term. Then of course you have your 50 and 200 daily moving averages that come into play from time to time like right now for example. Gold is currently being supported by the 50 and 200 dma with the 300 dma support coming in at 1593. I would like to see gold start trading above the 150 dma which has been very good support in the pasts.

The 10 month ema has done an outstanding job of holding support for most of the bull market. During the 2008 crash low the 10 month ema closed below the price action for about 3 months where it quickly recovered and held support until our most recent consolidation pattern. During our recent correction the 10 month ema close below the price action only one month where it again recovered quickly. The current 10 month ema comes in at 1624 which is just below the low made so far in March.

The last moving average I would like to show and is probably my favorite is the 65 week ma. As you can see on the chart below the only time it has failed was during the 2008 crash. In every other instance the 65 week ma has held support. Even our latest correction held support at the 65 week ma.

The next gold chart I would like to show is the Fibonacci retrace of our latest correction. After hitting the bottom in late 2011 gold went on a nice run higher up to 1792 where we got the flash crash almost 2 weeks ago. So far the fib 50% retrace has held support.

The last chart I would like to show is a very long term chart that goes all the way back to the 1980 bull market high in gold. This long term chart of gold is probably my favorite as it has been playing out for many years now. Its also a good study in support and resistance. What this chart shows is how each level, cup and handle, has doubled in size, blue and red arrows. If you start with the first cup, at the bottom of the chart, and add that measurement to cup #2 you have a double. Then if you take the distance of both cups 1 and 2  together, and add them to the top of the 2nd cup you  again get a double with a  price objective to the top of cup 3. Our last move to 1900 was a double of the preceding 3 cups. There is also a nice H&S base that started in 1980 and finally broke the neckline and cup #3 in August of 2007. From that point the bull market doubled again to our recent high at 1920. This chart has now done everything it was designed to do so I don’t know if there is any more to expect from it. I just doubled the whole bull market from the bottom in 2001 to our most recent high, just for the heck of it, which gave me a price objective to over 14,000. I really don’t think gold will go that high so I’ll just keep it on file for future reference.

This Afternoon I would like to show you the very long term chart of the US Dollar that goes all the way back to 1986 where it topped out at 160. As you can see on the chart below it has been in a confirmed downtrend that is still on going. What I want to focus on is the blue downtrend channel that began in 2000 at 120. The top and bottom blue rails are perfectly parallel with each rail having two hits on them. Now I want to focus your attention on the red horizontal pattern. At this point the only thing I can name it is a 2 1/2 double top. I’ve seen this pattern on other stocks that can show up at a bottom also. Whenever I see a horizontal trading range like this, similar to a rectangle, I always put in a center line in the middle of the consolidation pattern. This is the thin red dashed horizontal line. You can see how this center rail has halted the advance in the dollar since 2011 with the last touch about 2 1/2 months ago at the 82 level. The dollar is currently trading just under 80 so we are nearing the strong resistance points where the top blue rail of the center downtrend channel and the red dashed horizontal rails converge, green circle. The red 2 1/2 top halfway pattern has a measured move down to 52 sometime in 2015 which is only 3 short years away. A subscriber asked me the other day what will it take to finally get the precious metals stocks into rally mode. This long term chart of the dollar is your answer. We are within one or two points of reaching the strong resistance point at 82. As the dollar is looking for a high right in here I think the precious metals stocks are looking for a low right now which makes perfect sense. Jim Sinclair used this chart several years ago in one of his commentaries on the US Dollar. As this is a long term monthly chart its still the same chart with only the red halfway pattern developing within the blue downtrend channel that is new. One last note on the dollar chart. There was a bullish rising wedge that formed as a halfway pattern back in the late 1990?s that measured to the last major top in 2000.

all the best Rambus